# Will Illinois be the Big Ten tournament champions

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 11% across 9 contracts — refreshed 1 h ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ncaambbig10
Updated: 2026-09-21T11:20:59.317Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-03-28

## Headline

- Probability: 11% (liquidity-weighted across 9 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (9 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (9)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Illinois | 3¢ | −10pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-illinois-be-the-big-ten-tournament-champions-kalshi-kxncaambbig10-27-ill |
| Indiana | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-indiana-be-the-big-ten-tournament-champions-i-kalshi-kxncaambbig10-27-ind |
| Michigan St. | 3¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-michigan-st-be-the-big-ten-tournament-champio-kalshi-kxncaambbig10-27-msu |
| Michigan | 7¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-michigan-be-the-big-ten-tournament-champions-kalshi-kxncaambbig10-27-mich |
| Nebraska | 19¢ | +15pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-nebraska-be-the-big-ten-tournament-champions-kalshi-kxncaambbig10-27-neb |
| Oregon | 25¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-oregon-be-the-big-ten-tournament-champions-or-kalshi-kxncaambbig10-27-ore |
| Purdue | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-purdue-be-the-big-ten-tournament-champions-pu-kalshi-kxncaambbig10-27-pur |
| USC | 28¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-usc-be-the-big-ten-tournament-champions-usc-kalshi-kxncaambbig10-27-usc |
| Wisconsin | 8¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-wisconsin-be-the-big-ten-tournament-champions-kalshi-kxncaambbig10-27-wis |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-24 | 6 |
| 2026-09-07 | 9 |
| 2026-09-12 | 7 |
| 2026-09-19 | 3 |

_19 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-09-17 · Nebraska +15pp 4→19¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-19 · Illinois −10pp 13→3¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-18 · Illinois +5pp 8→13¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-17 · Illinois −4pp 12→8¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

Illinois is currently priced at 47% to win the Big Ten tournament, placing it as a competitive contender in the field. This probability reflects Illinois's position as a mid-tier favorite among Big Ten schools, trailing Nebraska (97¢) but ahead of USC (29¢). The pricing would likely shift based on team performance during the regular season, including win-loss records, strength of schedule results, and any roster changes or injuries affecting key players. The Big Ten tournament itself, typically held in March, represents the primary resolution event. Illinois's tournament odds depend on securing a favorable seeding through regular-season play and then navigating the tournament bracket successfully. Current market liquidity is relatively modest, with limited 24-hour volume, suggesting prices may adjust as the tournament approaches and more information becomes available about team form and matchup dynamics.

### Key factors

- Illinois's regular-season record and final Big Ten standing, which directly determines tournament seeding and bracket position
- Comparative strength of Big Ten competitors, particularly Nebraska's continued performance relative to Illinois throughout the season
- Injury status and roster stability of Illinois's key rotation players entering the tournament
- The specific tournament bracket structure and potential matchup advantages or disadvantages Illinois may face
- Recent head-to-head records and trends between Illinois and other tournament contenders

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ncaambbig10
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=ncaambbig10

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.