# Will Scott Drew be the next permanent head coach of Kansas men's college basketball

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 8% across 2 contracts — refreshed 3 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ncaambnextcoach
Updated: 2026-05-09T05:05:39.721Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-11-10

## Headline

- Probability: 8% (liquidity-weighted across 2 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $1K

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Billy Donovan | 7¢ | ±0 | $864 | kalshi | /markets/will-billy-donovan-be-the-next-permanent-head-coac-kalshi-kxncaambnextcoach-ku26-bdon |
| Jacque Vaughn | 8¢ | ±0 | $596 | kalshi | /markets/will-jacque-vaughn-be-the-next-permanent-head-coac-kalshi-kxncaambnextcoach-ku26-jvau |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 8 |
| 2026-04-25 | 7 |
| 2026-05-01 | 8 |
| 2026-05-08 | 8 |

_26 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This 8% probability reflects the market's assessment that Scott Drew will become Kansas's next permanent head coach. Drew has established himself as a successful coach at Baylor, where he's built a competitive program, but the low probability suggests significant barriers to this outcome. The main factors affecting this estimate are whether Kansas's current coaching situation changes, Drew's willingness to leave Baylor for another job, and the strength of competing candidates. Any announcement regarding Kansas's coaching vacancy or Drew's contract status would materially shift this probability. The resolution depends on whether Kansas actually opens its head coaching position and whether Drew emerges as the top candidate when that occurs.

### Key factors

- Scott Drew has a long-term commitment to Baylor with no recent public signals of interest in departing for another NCAA program
- Kansas would need to create a head coaching vacancy through termination or resignation of its current coach, which has not been announced
- Multiple candidates typically compete for high-profile college basketball positions like Kansas, diluting any single candidate's probability
- Drew's track record at Baylor (tournament appearances, program stability) makes him potentially attractive to blue-blood programs, but also creates high opportunity cost to leave
- Market pricing at 8% suggests this outcome is considered possible but substantially less likely than other scenarios for Kansas's next permanent coach

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ncaambnextcoach
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=ncaambnextcoach

## License

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