# Will Houston be a top 10 ranked team on College Basketball AP Poll Week 1 rankings

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 51% across 17 contracts — refreshed 3 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ncaambtopaprank
Updated: 2026-05-09T05:50:41.134Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-29

## Headline

- Probability: 51% (liquidity-weighted across 17 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (17 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (17)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duke | 82¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-duke-be-a-top-25-ranked-team-on-college-baske-kalshi-kxncaambtopaprank-26w1t25-duke |
| Arizona | 76¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-arizona-be-a-top-25-ranked-team-on-college-ba-kalshi-kxncaambtopaprank-26w1t25-ariz |
| Michigan | 80¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-michigan-be-a-top-25-ranked-team-on-college-b-kalshi-kxncaambtopaprank-26w1t25-mich |
| Houston | 34¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-houston-be-a-top-25-ranked-team-on-college-ba-kalshi-kxncaambtopaprank-26w1t25-hou |
| UConn | 76¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-uconn-be-a-top-25-ranked-team-on-college-bask-kalshi-kxncaambtopaprank-26w1t25-conn |
| Arkansas | 16¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-arkansas-be-a-top-25-ranked-team-on-college-b-kalshi-kxncaambtopaprank-26w1t25-ark |
| Illinois | 76¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-illinois-be-a-top-25-ranked-team-on-college-b-kalshi-kxncaambtopaprank-26w1t25-ill |
| Michigan St. | 71¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-michigan-st-be-a-top-25-ranked-team-on-colleg-kalshi-kxncaambtopaprank-26w1t25-msu |
| Louisville | 34¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-louisville-be-a-top-25-ranked-team-on-college-kalshi-kxncaambtopaprank-26w1t25-lou |
| Tennessee | 21¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-tennessee-be-a-top-25-ranked-team-on-college-kalshi-kxncaambtopaprank-26w1t25-tenn |
| Texas | 76¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-texas-be-a-top-25-ranked-team-on-college-bask-kalshi-kxncaambtopaprank-26w1t25-tex |
| North Carolina | 30¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-north-carolina-be-a-top-25-ranked-team-on-col-kalshi-kxncaambtopaprank-26w1t25-unc |
| Gonzaga | 76¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-gonzaga-be-a-top-25-ranked-team-on-college-ba-kalshi-kxncaambtopaprank-26w1t25-gonz |
| Purdue | 11¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-purdue-be-a-top-25-ranked-team-on-college-bas-kalshi-kxncaambtopaprank-26w1t25-pur |
| Virginia | 21¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-virginia-be-a-top-25-ranked-team-on-college-b-kalshi-kxncaambtopaprank-26w1t25-uva |
| Texas A&M | 4¢ | −22pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-texas-am-be-a-top-25-ranked-team-on-college-b-kalshi-kxncaambtopaprank-26w1t25-txam |
| Florida | 81¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-florida-be-a-top-25-ranked-team-on-mens-colle-kalshi-kxncaambtopaprank-26w1t25-fla |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-22 | 40 |
| 2026-04-25 | 64 |
| 2026-05-02 | 79 |
| 2026-05-07 | 82 |

_12 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · Texas A&M −22pp 26→4¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-02 · Arizona +3pp 73→76¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market estimates a 49% probability that Houston's basketball team will be ranked in the top 10 of the AP Poll's Week 1 preseason rankings for the 2026-27 season. Houston's standing depends primarily on their offseason roster changes, injury status of key players, and how voters perceive their returning talent relative to other programs. The main driver of the current even-odds probability is uncertainty around player retention and transfer portal activity, which historically shapes preseason expectations. The AP Poll Week 1 rankings will be released in late October 2026, which is when this market resolves.

### Key factors

- Houston's roster composition following the offseason transfer portal and recruitment period
- Status of Houston's returning core players and any injury developments before preseason rankings
- Voter perception of Houston's recent tournament performance and program trajectory
- Competition level among peer programs vying for top-10 preseason positions
- Any coaching staff changes or program news affecting Houston's perceived 2026-27 potential

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ncaambtopaprank
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=ncaambtopaprank

## License

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