# Will Texas win the College Softball D1 championship

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 13% across 7 contracts — refreshed 52 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ncaasoftball
Updated: 2026-05-28T20:20:07.537Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-20

## Headline

- Probability: 13% (liquidity-weighted across 7 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (7 contracts)
- 24h volume: $22K

## Bound contracts (7)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas Tech | 26¢ | −1pp | $9K | kalshi | /markets/will-texas-tech-win-the-college-softball-d1-champi-kalshi-kxncaasoftball-26-ttu |
| Tennessee | 9¢ | — | $3K | kalshi | /markets/will-tennessee-win-the-college-softball-d1-champio-kalshi-kxncaasoftball-26-tenn |
| Nebraska | 15¢ | −4pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/will-nebraska-win-the-college-softball-d1-champion-kalshi-kxncaasoftball-26-neb |
| Texas | 15¢ | +7pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/will-texas-win-the-college-softball-d1-championshi-kalshi-kxncaasoftball-26-tex |
| Arkansas | 5¢ | — | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-arkansas-win-the-college-softball-d1-champion-kalshi-kxncaasoftball-26-ark |
| Alabama | 17¢ | +4pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-alabama-win-the-college-softball-d1-champions-kalshi-kxncaasoftball-26-ala |
| Mississippi State | 3¢ | — | $918 | kalshi | /markets/will-mississippi-state-win-the-college-softball-d1-kalshi-kxncaasoftball-26-msst |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-27 | 11 |
| 2026-05-28 | 15 |

_2 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-28 · Texas +7pp 7→14¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-28 · Nebraska −4pp 17→13¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-28 · Alabama +4pp 9→13¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

Texas is assigned a 15% probability of winning the College Softball D1 championship, meaning the market estimates roughly a 1-in-7 chance they claim the title. This places them in the middle tier of contenders, behind Arkansas (20%) and UCLA (17%) but ahead of Nebraska and Mississippi State. The probability reflects Texas's historical program strength balanced against competitive uncertainties inherent in single-elimination tournament play. The primary drivers of this probability are Texas's regular-season performance through May-June, their seeding and draw position in the NCAA tournament (typically announced in early June), and injury status of key players heading into postseason play. The NCAA Women's College World Series, held in June in Oklahoma City, will definitively settle this market as games proceed through the bracket.

### Key factors

- Texas's regular-season record and RPI ranking as of early June determine tournament seeding, which materially affects championship odds through bracket placement
- Comparative strength of top-seeded programs—Arkansas, UCLA, Nebraska—relative to Texas's roster depth and pitcher availability
- Historical tournament performance: whether Texas has demonstrated ability to win multiple elimination games in prior World Series appearances
- NCAA tournament bracket composition and draw luck, which determines Texas's path to the championship and quality of opponents faced
- Injury status of Texas's starting pitcher(s) and key position players heading into the June World Series

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ncaasoftball
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=ncaasoftball

## License

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