# Will Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. report Above 885 thousand passengers carried in Q2 2026

> Above 840 thousand leads at 55%, runner-up 38% across 6 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 54 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nclh
Updated: 2026-06-28T21:20:49.400Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-08-29

## Headline

- Leader: Above 840 thousand at 55%
- Runner-up: Above 855 thousand at 38%
- Outcomes: 6 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (6 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (6)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 840 thousand | 55¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-norwegian-cruise-line-holdings-ltd-report-abo-kalshi-kxnclh-26julpax-840000 |
| Above 855 thousand | 38¢ | +5pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-norwegian-cruise-line-holdings-ltd-report-abo-kalshi-kxnclh-26julpax-855000 |
| Above 870 thousand | 28¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-norwegian-cruise-line-holdings-ltd-report-abo-kalshi-kxnclh-26julpax-870000 |
| Above 885 thousand | 19¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-norwegian-cruise-line-holdings-ltd-report-abo-kalshi-kxnclh-26julpax-885000 |
| Above 900 thousand | 11¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-norwegian-cruise-line-holdings-ltd-report-abo-kalshi-kxnclh-26julpax-900000 |
| Above 915 thousand | 3¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-norwegian-cruise-line-holdings-ltd-report-abo-kalshi-kxnclh-26julpax-915000 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above 840 thousand | Above 855 thousand | Above 870 thousand |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-29 | 51 | 41 | 28 |
| 2026-06-13 | 48 | 34 | 24 |
| 2026-06-14 | 51 | — | — |
| 2026-06-21 | 52 | 34 | 25 |
| 2026-06-26 | 54 | 39 | 28 |

_24 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-26 · Above 855 thousand +5pp 34→39¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-26 · Above 840 thousand +3pp 51→54¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-26 · Above 870 thousand +3pp 25→28¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This contract asks whether Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings will carry more than 885,000 passengers in the second quarter of 2026. The current 72% probability assigned to the related 840,000-passenger threshold suggests markets expect the cruise operator to achieve moderate passenger volumes during that period. The forecast reflects seasonal demand patterns typical of Q2 travel, fleet capacity utilization, and historical booking trends. Key drivers include whether cruise-market recovery continues post-pandemic, competitive capacity additions from rivals, and economic conditions affecting leisure travel spending. Norwegian will publish Q2 2026 earnings results in mid-August 2026, which will definitively resolve all contracts through actual reported passenger carryings. Until then, any economic data, booking reports, or competitor announcements may shift market expectations.

### Key factors

- Norwegian's reported passenger numbers for Q1 2026 and booking pace for Q2 will anchor expectations
- Cruise industry capacity expansion and competitor pricing power affect market-wide volume trends
- Fuel costs, labor expenses, and operational constraints directly impact achievable passenger throughput
- Economic recession indicators or sustained consumer spending weakness could reduce Q2 leisure travel demand
- The 885k threshold sits between the 73% confidence level (840k) and the 25% confidence level (900k), suggesting moderate uncertainty in the mid-range outcome

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nclh
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=nclh

## License

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