# Will Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. report Above 3.1 million passengers carried in 2026

> Above 3.15 million leads at 97%, runner-up 97% across 7 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 27 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nclha
Updated: 2026-06-25T23:20:49.203Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2028-03-31

## Headline

- Leader: Above 3.15 million at 97%
- Runner-up: Above 3.1 million at 97%
- Outcomes: 7 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (7 contracts)
- 24h volume: $2K

## Bound contracts (7)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 3.15 million | 97¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-norwegian-cruise-line-holdings-ltd-report-abo-kalshi-kxnclha-28janpax-3150000.0 |
| Above 3.1 million | 97¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-norwegian-cruise-line-holdings-ltd-report-abo-kalshi-kxnclha-28janpax-3100000.0 |
| Above 3.25 million | 95¢ | +4pp | $124 | kalshi | /markets/will-norwegian-cruise-line-holdings-ltd-report-abo-kalshi-kxnclha-28janpax-3250000.0 |
| Above 3.2 million | 94¢ | +4pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-norwegian-cruise-line-holdings-ltd-report-abo-kalshi-kxnclha-28janpax-3200000.0 |
| Above 3.3 million | 75¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-norwegian-cruise-line-holdings-ltd-report-abo-kalshi-kxnclha-28janpax-3300000.0 |
| Above 3.35 million | 62¢ | — | $215 | kalshi | /markets/will-norwegian-cruise-line-holdings-ltd-report-abo-kalshi-kxnclha-28janpax-3350000.0 |
| Above 3.4 million | 36¢ | ±0 | $15 | kalshi | /markets/will-norwegian-cruise-line-holdings-ltd-report-abo-kalshi-kxnclha-28janpax-3400000.0 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above 3.15 million | Above 3.1 million | Above 3.25 million |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-23 | 92 | 94 | 88 |
| 2026-06-24 | 96 | 97 | 92 |
| 2026-06-25 | 96 | — | 96 |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-24 · Above 3.2 million +4pp 91→95¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-24 · Above 3.25 million +4pp 88→92¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-25 · Above 3.25 million +4pp 92→96¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-24 · Above 3.15 million +4pp 92→96¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-24 · Above 3.1 million +3pp 94→97¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

Markets are pricing a 94% probability that Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings will carry more than 3.1 million passengers in 2026, with diminishing confidence at higher thresholds (40% above 3.4 million). This reflects expectations that the company's fleet capacity and booking demand will support mid-range volumes typical for major cruise operators. The probability level hinges on two main factors: the company's ability to maintain operational capacity and occupancy rates amid broader cruise industry demand, and macroeconomic conditions affecting consumer travel spending through year-end. The outcome resolves when the company reports full-year 2026 passenger figures, typically disclosed in early 2027 earnings announcements. Current pricing suggests traders view headwinds as manageable but acknowledge material risk that actual volumes fall short of the threshold, particularly given the descending probability curve across higher passenger-count brackets.

### Key factors

- Norwegian Cruise Line's reported fleet capacity and available sailing days in 2026, which directly constrain maximum passenger throughput
- Historical occupancy rates and per-ship passenger loads compared to 2026 booking trends and inventory management
- Macroeconomic demand signals for cruise travel including advance bookings, booking value, and cruise line pricing power through mid-2026
- Potential operational disruptions (weather, port availability, ship maintenance) that could reduce realized sailing capacity or passenger-carrying ability
- Comparison to Norwegian's 2025 full-year reported passengers as a baseline for assessing growth or contraction trajectory

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nclha
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=nclha

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