# Will Copart be removed from the Nasdaq-100 in Q3 2026

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 7% across 6 contracts — refreshed 3 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ndxremoveq
Updated: 2026-08-11T19:20:49.304Z
Category: markets
Status: active
Closes: 2026-10-01

## Headline

- Probability: 7% (liquidity-weighted across 6 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (6 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (6)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DexCom | 9¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-dexcom-be-removed-from-the-nasdaq-100-in-q3-2-kalshi-kxndxremoveq-26oct01-dxcm |
| GE HealthCare | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-ge-healthcare-be-removed-from-the-nasdaq-100-kalshi-kxndxremoveq-26oct01-gehc |
| Kraft Heinz | 7¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-kraft-heinz-be-removed-from-the-nasdaq-100-in-kalshi-kxndxremoveq-26oct01-khc |
| Copart | 9¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-copart-be-removed-from-the-nasdaq-100-in-q3-2-kalshi-kxndxremoveq-26oct01-cprt |
| Workday | 5¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-workday-be-removed-from-the-nasdaq-100-in-q3-kalshi-kxndxremoveq-26oct01-wday |
| Strategy | 6¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-strategy-be-removed-from-the-nasdaq-100-in-q3-kalshi-kxndxremoveq-26oct01-mstr |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-07-12 | 9 |
| 2026-07-28 | 11 |
| 2026-08-04 | 18 |
| 2026-08-09 | 12 |

_20 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This market estimates a 6% probability that Copart will be removed from the Nasdaq-100 index during the third quarter of 2026. Index composition changes occur when companies are added or deleted based on criteria including market capitalization, liquidity, and fundamentals. Copart would face removal if its market cap fell significantly, if the index reconstitution committee determined it no longer met inclusion standards, or if a major corporate action occurred. The Nasdaq-100 reconstitutes periodically, with changes typically announced quarterly. The main drivers of removal risk are stock price declines that reduce market capitalization below thresholds relative to other index constituents, deteriorating trading volume, or fundamental business deterioration. Key dates include the next scheduled index review announcement, which would signal whether Copart faces any inclusion risk. Current trading volume and market positioning suggest low removal probability, though unexpected earnings misses or sector downturns could alter this assessment.

### Key factors

- Copart's market capitalization relative to Nasdaq-100 inclusion thresholds and other index constituents
- Trading volume and liquidity metrics compared to index requirements
- Scheduled index reconstitution dates and announcement timeline in Q3 2026
- Stock price performance and market cap changes in the months leading to potential reconstitution
- Any announced corporate actions, mergers, or material business developments affecting index eligibility

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

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- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ndxremoveq
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=ndxremoveq

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