# NE-02 Republican Primary Winner

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 97% across 1 contract — refreshed 1 d ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ne02-republican-primary-winner
Updated: 2026-05-07T22:50:43.350Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-12

## Headline

- Probability: 97% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Polymarket (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $197

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brinker Harding | 97¢ | ±0 | $197 | polymarket | /markets/ne-02-republican-primary-winner-brinker-harding-polymarket-0x6e7e4837ca555b5b02dfa6a55fe743795148fc2b5d8d90797911a1e8270392d3 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 94 |
| 2026-04-24 | 99 |
| 2026-05-02 | 96 |
| 2026-05-09 | 99 |

_22 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · Brinker Harding +3pp 95→98¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

The 96% probability indicates strong market confidence in a particular Republican candidate winning the NE-02 primary. This elevated level reflects either concentrated support for the frontrunner or relatively limited competition. The probability could shift based on late-breaking endorsements, changes in candidate spending, turnout patterns in key areas, or unexpected campaign developments. The primary election date itself would be the definitive resolution event, settling the outcome once voting concludes. Currently, the market shows high conviction around the leading candidate, though the 4% assigned to the runner-up suggests some residual uncertainty about potential late movements.

### Key factors

- Market is pricing in a clear frontrunner with substantial lead over nearest competitor, evidenced by 96% vs 4% split across the two binding contracts
- Trading volume and contract composition suggest limited recent price movement, indicating relatively stable market assessment rather than recent shifts in sentiment
- Primary election date represents the hard resolution point—outcome becomes binary and final once voting concludes
- Runner-up retains 4% probability, indicating market participants see non-zero risk of upset or surprise outcome despite strong frontrunner positioning
- Current probability reflects aggregation across multiple contracts on Polymarket, though individual contract prices may show minor variance affecting exact headline figure

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ne02-republican-primary-winner
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=ne02-republican-primary-winner
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.