# Will NEAR trimmed mean be above $2.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Dec 31, 2026

> Above $4.00 leads at 83%, runner-up 12% across 4 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 14 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nearmaxy-near
Updated: 2026-09-21T23:20:51.712Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-01

## Headline

- Leader: Above $4.00 at 83%
- Runner-up: Above $4.50 at 12%
- Outcomes: 4 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (4 contracts)
- 24h volume: $1K

## Bound contracts (4)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above $4.00 | 83¢ | +47pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-near-trimmed-mean-be-above-400-by-1159-pm-et-kalshi-kxnearmaxy-near-26dec31-400 |
| Above $4.50 | 12¢ | −18pp | $349 | kalshi | /markets/will-near-trimmed-mean-be-above-450-by-1159-pm-et-kalshi-kxnearmaxy-near-26dec31-450 |
| Above $5.00 | 4¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-near-trimmed-mean-be-above-500-by-1159-pm-et-kalshi-kxnearmaxy-near-26dec31-500 |
| Above $5.50 | 4¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-near-trimmed-mean-be-above-550-by-1159-pm-et-kalshi-kxnearmaxy-near-26dec31-550 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above $4.00 | Above $4.50 | Above $5.00 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-24 | 4 | 11 | — |
| 2026-08-26 | 24 | 14 | 3 |
| 2026-09-06 | 32 | 30 | 5 |
| 2026-09-07 | — | — | 2 |
| 2026-09-10 | 4 | — | 2 |
| 2026-09-12 | 4 | — | — |
| 2026-09-18 | 28 | 12 | 4 |
| 2026-09-19 | 75 | — | — |

_20 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-09-19 · Above $4.00 +47pp 28→75¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-18 · Above $4.00 +20pp 8→28¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-18 · Above $4.50 −18pp 30→12¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-17 · Above $4.00 +4pp 4→8¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market is asking whether NEAR Protocol's token will trade above $2.00 by year-end 2026, with traders currently assessing this outcome as slightly less likely than not at 45%. The probability reflects uncertainty about NEAR's competitive positioning in the Layer-1 blockchain ecosystem, its adoption metrics, and broader cryptocurrency market conditions over the next five months. Upward pressure would come from increased developer activity, partnership announcements, or positive performance relative to competing chains; downward pressure would stem from network congestion issues, market-wide crypto weakness, or loss of developer mindshare. The primary resolution factors include NEAR's actual transaction volume and validator economics through Q4 2026, along with macroeconomic conditions affecting risk asset valuations during that period.

### Key factors

- NEAR's trimmed mean price is currently below $2.00, requiring approximately 100%+ appreciation to resolve positively
- The contract pricing across multiple strike levels ($2.00-$4.00) shows relatively consistent probabilities, suggesting limited differentiation in trader conviction across price tiers
- Zero 24-hour volume across all tracked contracts indicates minimal recent trading activity and potentially wide bid-ask spreads
- NEAR's network fundamentals including validator participation rates, developer activity, and transaction throughput through Q4 2026 will directly impact investor confidence
- Cryptocurrency market correlation effects from macro trends, regulatory developments, and competing Layer-1 protocols are material to resolution

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nearmaxy-near
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=nearmaxy-near

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.