# Will NEAR trimmed mean be below $0.50 by 11:59 PM ET on Dec 31, 2026

> Below $1.50 leads at 69%, runner-up 23% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 53 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nearminy-near
Updated: 2026-08-24T13:20:51.812Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-01

## Headline

- Leader: Below $1.50 at 69%
- Runner-up: Below $1.00 at 23%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $47

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Below $1.50 | 69¢ | −3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-near-trimmed-mean-be-below-150-by-1159-pm-et-kalshi-kxnearminy-near-26dec31-150 |
| Below $1.00 | 23¢ | +1pp | $47 | kalshi | /markets/will-near-trimmed-mean-be-below-100-by-1159-pm-et-kalshi-kxnearminy-near-26dec31-100 |
| Below $0.50 | 10¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-near-trimmed-mean-be-below-050-by-1159-pm-et-kalshi-kxnearminy-near-26dec31-050 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Below $1.50 | Below $1.00 | Below $0.50 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-27 | 76 | 31 | — |
| 2026-07-29 | 85 | 37 | 7 |
| 2026-07-30 | 85 | 38 | 7 |
| 2026-07-31 | 83 | 36 | 7 |
| 2026-08-06 | 82 | 35 | 7 |
| 2026-08-10 | 81 | 35 | 10 |
| 2026-08-17 | 77 | 23 | — |
| 2026-08-24 | 61 | 23 | — |

_27 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-08-20 · Below $1.50 −5pp 74→69¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-22 · Below $1.00 +4pp 17→21¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-21 · Below $1.50 −4pp 69→65¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-22 · Below $1.50 −4pp 65→61¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-17 · Below $1.00 −3pp 26→23¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This contract measures whether NEAR's trimmed mean price will fall below $0.50 by year-end 2026. At 74% probability for the $1.50 threshold and only 3% for $0.50, traders assign low probability to extreme downside but expect continued price decline over the next five months. The pricing reflects NEAR's recent performance and broader cryptocurrency market conditions. The spread between contracts ($1.50 at 74% versus $0.50 at 3%) suggests traders see moderate weakness as likely but complete collapse as unlikely. Resolution depends on market sentiment toward NEAR's ecosystem development, adoption metrics, and macroeconomic factors affecting crypto valuations. Year-end typically brings holiday trading patterns and tax-loss harvesting that could accelerate downward or stabilize prices.

### Key factors

- NEAR's current spot price relative to $0.50 and $1.50 resistance levels; distance-to-target determines probability of crossing thresholds
- Trimmed mean calculation method used by contract issuer; spreads and outlier treatment directly affect final settlement value
- Network adoption metrics and developer activity through 2026; declining on-chain usage would pressure prices downward
- Bitcoin and Ethereum price movements; NEAR historically correlates with major crypto market cycles
- Kalshi contract liquidity ($0 24h volume across all three tiers) suggests low trading interest and potentially wide bid-ask spreads affecting price reliability

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nearminy-near
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=nearminy-near

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.