# Will Eric Moyer be the Democratic nominee for NE-01

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 51% across 4 contracts — refreshed 3 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/neprimary
Updated: 2026-05-09T05:05:43.723Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2027-11-03

## Headline

- Probability: 51% (liquidity-weighted across 4 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (4 contracts)
- 24h volume: $403

## Bound contracts (4)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Moyer | 4¢ | −2pp | $132 | kalshi | /markets/will-eric-moyer-be-the-democratic-nominee-for-ne-0-kalshi-kxneprimary-01d26-emoy |
| David Huebner | 7¢ | +2pp | $110 | kalshi | /markets/will-david-huebner-be-the-republican-nominee-for-n-kalshi-kxneprimary-03r26-dhue |
| Chris Backemeyer | 97¢ | +8pp | $101 | kalshi | /markets/will-chris-backemeyer-be-the-democratic-nominee-fo-kalshi-kxneprimary-01d26-cbac |
| Adrian Smith | 97¢ | +7pp | $60 | kalshi | /markets/will-adrian-smith-be-the-republican-nominee-for-ne-kalshi-kxneprimary-03r26-asmi |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 50 |
| 2026-04-28 | 2 |
| 2026-05-02 | 85 |
| 2026-05-09 | 65 |

_15 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-09 · Chris Backemeyer +8pp 89→97¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-09 · Adrian Smith +7pp 90→97¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-08 · Eric Moyer −4pp 8→4¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-08 · Chris Backemeyer +4pp 85→89¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-08 · Adrian Smith −3pp 93→90¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability reflects the market's current assessment that Eric Moyer has a 63% chance of becoming the Democratic nominee for Nebraska's 1st congressional district. The estimate is based on limited contract volume across three Kalshi markets. Key drivers of this probability include Moyer's existing political profile, any primary opposition he faces, and recent polling or endorsement patterns within Nebraska's Democratic establishment. The main catalyst that would resolve this uncertainty is Nebraska's Democratic primary election, scheduled for the 2026 midterm cycle. Other significant factors include fundraising totals relative to competitors, turnout patterns in Democratic-leaning areas of the district, and any shifts in national Democratic Party resource allocation to competitive House races.

### Key factors

- Eric Moyer's prior electoral performance and name recognition in NE-01, if any
- Number and viability of competing Democratic primary candidates in the race
- Campaign fundraising totals and spending patterns relative to opponents through mid-2026
- Endorsements from Nebraska Democratic Party leadership and prominent local figures
- Voter turnout expectations in Democratic primary relative to historical midterm participation rates

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/neprimary
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=neprimary
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.