# Will New River Gorge National Park recreation visits in 2026 be above 2.0 million

> Above 1.7 million leads at 96%, runner-up 91% across 8 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 28 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nerivisits
Updated: 2026-09-24T03:20:49.851Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-03-31

## Headline

- Leader: Above 1.7 million at 96%
- Runner-up: Above 1.8 million at 91%
- Outcomes: 8 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (8 contracts)
- 24h volume: $2K

## Bound contracts (8)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 1.7 million | 96¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-new-river-gorge-national-park-recreation-visi-kalshi-kxnerivisits-27mar31-t1.7 |
| Above 1.8 million | 91¢ | +5pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-new-river-gorge-national-park-recreation-visi-kalshi-kxnerivisits-27mar31-t1.8 |
| Above 1.9 million | 90¢ | +5pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-new-river-gorge-national-park-recreation-visi-kalshi-kxnerivisits-27mar31-t1.9 |
| Above 2.0 million | 73¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-new-river-gorge-national-park-recreation-visi-kalshi-kxnerivisits-27mar31-t2.0 |
| Above 2.1 million | 36¢ | +3pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-new-river-gorge-national-park-recreation-visi-kalshi-kxnerivisits-27mar31-t2.1 |
| Above 2.2 million | 13¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-new-river-gorge-national-park-recreation-visi-kalshi-kxnerivisits-27mar31-t2.2 |
| Above 2.3 million | 4¢ | −4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-new-river-gorge-national-park-recreation-visi-kalshi-kxnerivisits-27mar31-t2.3 |
| Above 2.4 million | 3¢ | +2pp | $795 | kalshi | /markets/will-new-river-gorge-national-park-recreation-visi-kalshi-kxnerivisits-27mar31-t2.4 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above 1.7 million | Above 1.8 million | Above 1.9 million |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-25 | — | — | 84 |
| 2026-09-12 | — | — | 88 |
| 2026-09-17 | — | 95 | 89 |
| 2026-09-18 | 96 | 86 | 85 |
| 2026-09-19 | — | 91 | 90 |

_6 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-09-18 · Above 1.8 million −9pp 95→86¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-17 · Above 2.1 million +5pp 37→42¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-19 · Above 1.8 million +5pp 86→91¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-19 · Above 1.9 million +5pp 85→90¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-18 · Above 2.0 million −5pp 79→74¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

Markets are pricing a 57% probability that New River Gorge National Park will record more than 2.0 million recreation visits during 2026. This represents a moderately likely but uncertain outcome, with traders factoring in the park's historical visitation trends and 2026 seasonal conditions. Key drivers include whether economic conditions support travel to the region, typical summer and fall peak season performance, and any infrastructure or access changes. The outcome will be settled by official National Park Service visitation statistics, typically released in early 2027, which count all recreational entry points and activities at the 72,500-acre site in West Virginia. Current pricing suggests traders view exceeding 2.0 million as more probable than not, but the declining probability curve (57% → 26% → 11% → 4% for progressively higher thresholds) indicates meaningful uncertainty about the final figure.

### Key factors

- New River Gorge reported approximately 1.4–1.7 million annual visits in recent pre-pandemic and post-pandemic periods, making a 2.0 million threshold represent roughly a 20–40% increase from recent historical levels
- National Park visitation is sensitive to fuel prices, regional economic conditions, and gas-station accessibility; 2026 economic forecasts and energy markets will materially affect travel patterns
- The park's peak seasons (May–October) account for roughly 60–70% of annual visitation; summer 2026 weather, wildfire smoke, or flooding events could significantly impact total-year counts
- Official NPS visitation data release (typically January–February 2027) will resolve the market; this uses entrance counting methodologies and recreational fee receipts that are verifiable but sometimes subject to revision
- Infrastructure projects, permit changes, or special events announced before end-of-year 2026 could shift expectations; the market is currently pricing low trading volume, suggesting limited new information flow

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nerivisits
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=nerivisits

## License

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