# Netanyahu out by...

> December 31 leads at 44%, runner-up 5% across 2 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 3 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/netanyahu-out
Updated: 2026-05-03T19:20:51.653Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-31

## Headline

- Leader: December 31 at 44%
- Runner-up: June 30 at 5%
- Outcomes: 2 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $13K

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 44¢ | +1pp | $3K | polymarket | /markets/netanyahu-out-by-december-31-polymarket-0xd1796c09d0d6f876f8580086ae9808ec991784e3a74b25a1830a25de71a78c96 |
| June 30 | 5¢ | −23pp | $10K | polymarket | /markets/netanyahu-out-by-june-30-polymarket-0x865303ccb9a48341d1bae33b3b4379ca86d5abbff3ce1e132716631cc0af3cce |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | December 31 | June 30 |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-08 | 40 | 8 |
| 2026-04-09 | 41 | 7 |
| 2026-04-10 | 43 | 8 |
| 2026-04-12 | 44 | 8 |
| 2026-04-19 | — | 7 |
| 2026-04-25 | — | 7 |
| 2026-05-02 | — | 5 |

_14 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-02 · June 30 −23pp 28→5¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-28 · June 30 +21pp 7→28¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

The 44% probability reflects market pricing that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will leave office by June 30, 2026. This assessment is driven by ongoing legal challenges against Netanyahu, including his corruption trial which continues through 2026, and political pressure within Israel's coalition government. The primary catalyst for resolution will be developments in the trial itself—conviction, acquittal, or significant procedural changes could dramatically shift expectations. Coalition stability also matters: any collapse of the current government arrangement could accelerate or delay his departure. The relatively high probability compared to other global leaders reflects the combination of active legal proceedings and the inherent fragility of Israeli coalition governments. Market pricing suggests roughly 2-in-5 odds, not certainty, that this transition occurs within the specified timeframe.

### Key factors

- Netanyahu's ongoing criminal trial is scheduled for continued hearings through mid-2026; major verdict developments or legal setbacks would directly impact removal probability
- Israeli coalition government stability depends on maintaining support from multiple parties with conflicting priorities; any significant coalition fracture would materially increase departure likelihood
- The June 30 deadline provides 13-14 months for legal conclusions or political shifts that could force a transition; markets are pricing meaningful but non-majority probability
- Comparative market pricing shows 44% for Netanyahu by June 30 versus only 3% for Saudi Arabia's Mohammed bin Salman by the same date, reflecting substantially different political risk profiles
- Historical precedent: Israeli prime ministers have faced removal or departure during legal proceedings, though such outcomes remain uncommon

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/netanyahu-out
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=netanyahu-out

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.