# Will Netanyahu be pardoned by June 30

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 10% across 1 contract — refreshed 2 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/netanyahu-pardoned-june-30
Updated: 2026-05-09T07:20:28.398Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-30

## Headline

- Probability: 10% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Polymarket (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $2K

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Netanyahu be pardoned by June 30? | 10¢ | +1pp | $2K | polymarket | /markets/will-netanyahu-be-pardoned-by-june-30-polymarket-0xc8f7591181f4059ffbdcc4c85b1e9e76f029bef0eb6cc46a80bd5617b947de74 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 26 |
| 2026-04-25 | 15 |
| 2026-05-02 | 13 |
| 2026-05-08 | 9 |

_26 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-02 · Will Netanyahu be pardoned by June 30? −4pp 17→13¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Will Netanyahu be pardoned by June 30? −4pp 13→9¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This market estimates an 11% chance that Benjamin Netanyahu receives a pardon by June 30, 2026. Netanyahu faces multiple legal cases in Israeli courts, and a pardon would require either a change in political circumstances or legal developments that alter the feasibility of such action. The current low probability reflects the legal and political obstacles to securing a pardon within the next two months. Key considerations include whether Netanyahu's coalition remains stable, how his legal proceedings advance, and whether international or domestic political pressure shifts. The primary catalyst will be developments in the Israeli Supreme Court's ongoing review of pardon procedures and any changes in government composition that might affect pardon authority or willingness.

### Key factors

- Netanyahu's coalition stability—a government collapse could shift political calculus around legal immunity and pardons
- Status of Israeli Supreme Court proceedings challenging pardon authority and Netanyahu's eligibility for executive clemency
- Pace and outcome of Netanyahu's ongoing criminal trials on charges of bribery, fraud, and breach of trust
- Whether new political developments emerge that increase pressure for legal resolution through pardon mechanisms
- Timeline constraints—only 58 days remain until the June 30 deadline for a pardon to take effect

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/netanyahu-pardoned-june-30
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=netanyahu-pardoned-june-30

## License

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