# Top US Netflix Movie on Apr 27, 2026

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 19% across 19 contracts — refreshed 1 h ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/netflixrankmovie
Updated: 2026-05-03T18:35:53.931Z
Category: entertainment
Status: active

## Headline

- Probability: 19% (liquidity-weighted across 19 contracts)
- Cross-venue: Kalshi 13% / Polymarket 71% — 58pp spread
- 24h volume: $61K

## Bound contracts (19)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man on Fire: Season 1 | 6¢ | −9pp | $29K | kalshi | /markets/top-us-netflix-show-on-may-4-2026-man-on-fire-seas-kalshi-kxnetflixrankshow-26may04-man |
| Man on Fire: Season 1 | 62¢ | −11pp | $14K | kalshi | /markets/top-global-netflix-show-on-may-4-2026-man-on-fire-kalshi-kxnetflixrankshowglobal-26may04-man |
| Running Point: Season 2 | 4¢ | −1pp | $12K | kalshi | /markets/top-us-netflix-show-on-may-4-2026-running-point-se-kalshi-kxnetflixrankshow-26may04-run |
| Unchosen: Season 1 | 3¢ | −1pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/top-global-netflix-show-on-may-4-2026-unchosen-sea-kalshi-kxnetflixrankshowglobal-26may04-unc |
| Roommates | 4¢ | −6pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/2-us-netflix-movie-on-may-4-2026-roommates-kalshi-kxnetflixrankmovierunnerup-26may04-roo |
| Swapped | 86¢ | +40pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/2-us-netflix-movie-on-may-4-2026-swapped-kalshi-kxnetflixrankmovierunnerup-26may04-swa |
| 180 | 5¢ | — | $335 | kalshi | /markets/top-global-netflix-movie-on-may-4-2026-180-kalshi-kxnetflixrankmovieglobal-26may04-180 |
| Apex | 9¢ | +7pp | $41 | kalshi | /markets/2-global-netflix-movie-on-may-4-2026-apex-kalshi-kxnetflixrankmovieglobal2-26may04-ape |
| 180 | 3¢ | −1pp | $40 | kalshi | /markets/2-global-netflix-movie-on-may-4-2026-180-kalshi-kxnetflixrankmovieglobal2-26may04-180 |
| Running Point: Season 2 | 6¢ | — | $29 | kalshi | /markets/top-global-netflix-show-on-may-4-2026-running-poin-kalshi-kxnetflixrankshowglobal-26may04-run |
| Trust Me: The False Prophet: Season 1 | 3¢ | — | $12 | kalshi | /markets/top-global-netflix-show-on-may-4-2026-trust-me-the-kalshi-kxnetflixrankshowglobal-26may04-tru |
| Thrash | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/2-global-netflix-movie-on-may-4-2026-thrash-kalshi-kxnetflixrankmovieglobal2-26may04-thr |
| Minions: The Rise of Gru | 3¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/2-global-netflix-movie-on-may-4-2026-minions-the-r-kalshi-kxnetflixrankmovieglobal2-26may04-min |
| Dune: Messiah | 70¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-2026-movies-will-make-it-into-the-imdb-top-2-polymarket-0x8e7d5adb2251a60d2d839b503e24b75c5e2b0c1a78993a2c4825425b80765ef2 |
| KPop Demon Hunters (Soundtrack from the Netflix Film) | 3¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-kpop-demon-hunters-soundtrack-from-the-netfli-kalshi-kxtopalbumspotify-26-kpo |
| Untold: The Shooting at Hawthorne Hill | 11¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/2-us-netflix-movie-on-may-4-2026-untold-the-shooti-kalshi-kxnetflixrankmovierunnerup-26may04-unt |
| KPop Demon Hunters (Soundtrack from the Netflix Film) | 5¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-kpop-demon-hunters-soundtrack-from-the-netfli-kalshi-kxtopalbumthirdusa-26-kpo |
| KPop Demon Hunters (Soundtrack from the Netflix Film) | 3¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-kpop-demon-hunters-soundtrack-from-the-netfli-kalshi-kxtopalbumspotifyusa-26-kpo |
| Avengers: Doomsday | 72¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-2026-movies-will-make-it-into-the-imdb-top-2-polymarket-0x6a0c853d6ae71361c4a0f5b02b162dfbd3cf2ffa3555c57644da9e0cce723300 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 48 |
| 2026-04-19 | 61 |
| 2026-04-28 | 55 |
| 2026-05-03 | 33 |

_21 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-03 · Swapped +40pp 48→88¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-02 · Swapped +39pp 9→48¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-01 · Man on Fire: Season 1 +35pp 26→61¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-30 · Avengers: Doomsday +19pp 54→73¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-30 · Man on Fire: Season 1 +18pp 12→30¢ · kalshi

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/netflixrankmovie
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=netflixrankmovie

## License

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