# Top Global Netflix Movie on May 4, 2026

> Apex leads at 95%, runner-up 4% across 2 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 6 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/netflixrankmovieglobal
Updated: 2026-05-03T21:51:01.714Z
Category: entertainment
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-05

## Headline

- Leader: Apex at 95%
- Runner-up: 180 at 4%
- Outcomes: 2 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $697

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apex | 95¢ | +2pp | $329 | kalshi | /markets/top-global-netflix-movie-on-may-4-2026-apex-kalshi-kxnetflixrankmovieglobal-26may04-ape |
| 180 | 4¢ | — | $368 | kalshi | /markets/top-global-netflix-movie-on-may-4-2026-180-kalshi-kxnetflixrankmovieglobal-26may04-180 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Apex | 180 |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-29 | 77 | — |
| 2026-04-30 | 90 | — |
| 2026-05-01 | 95 | — |
| 2026-05-02 | 97 | 3 |

_4 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-04-30 · Apex +13pp 77→90¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-01 · Apex +5pp 90→95¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This represents a 3% probability that a movie will rank as Netflix's most-watched globally on May 4, 2026. The low probability reflects that show content dominates Netflix's engagement metrics, with the top global ranking currently held by Man on Fire: Season 1 at 52¢—indicating strong viewer preference for episodic content over films on this date. Movie rankings are typically driven by new releases, viewing duration, and completion rates relative to available content. The resolution depends on Netflix's public viewership data for May 4, which would show definitively whether any movie surpassed all shows in global viewing time or engagement metrics.

### Key factors

- Man on Fire: Season 1 currently trades at 52¢ for top global Netflix show, suggesting shows substantially outpace movies in daily viewership
- No major film releases are evident in the contract volume data for May 4, 2026, limiting candidates that could occupy the top global position
- Movie rankings require sustained viewing duration to compete with multi-episode shows released on the same date
- Historical Netflix data shows shows consistently claim top rankings over movies when both release simultaneously
- Resolution depends on Netflix's official global viewing metrics published for May 4, 2026, which determine definitively whether any movie ranked first

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/netflixrankmovieglobal
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=netflixrankmovieglobal

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.