# Top US Netflix Show on May 4, 2026

> Running Point: Season 2 leads at 4%, runner-up 3% across 2 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 5 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/netflixrankshow
Updated: 2026-05-03T21:50:52.843Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-05

## Headline

- Leader: Running Point: Season 2 at 4%
- Runner-up: Man on Fire: Season 1 at 3%
- Outcomes: 2 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $43K

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Running Point: Season 2 | 4¢ | −1pp | $14K | kalshi | /markets/top-us-netflix-show-on-may-4-2026-running-point-se-kalshi-kxnetflixrankshow-26may04-run |
| Man on Fire: Season 1 | 3¢ | −9pp | $29K | kalshi | /markets/top-us-netflix-show-on-may-4-2026-man-on-fire-seas-kalshi-kxnetflixrankshow-26may04-man |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Running Point: Season 2 | Man on Fire: Season 1 |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-29 | 23 | 12 |
| 2026-04-30 | 22 | 30 |
| 2026-05-01 | 8 | 29 |
| 2026-05-02 | 4 | 13 |
| 2026-05-03 | 3 | 4 |

_5 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-04-30 · Man on Fire: Season 1 +18pp 12→30¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-02 · Man on Fire: Season 1 −16pp 29→13¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-01 · Running Point: Season 2 −14pp 22→8¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-03 · Man on Fire: Season 1 −9pp 13→4¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-02 · Running Point: Season 2 −4pp 8→4¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This contract predicts which show will rank as the top series on Netflix's US charts on May 4, 2026. Man on Fire: Season 1 currently leads at 4%, suggesting traders assign low probability to any single show dominating the charts that specific day. Netflix rankings shift frequently based on release timing, viewing patterns, and algorithm changes. The market is pricing in substantial uncertainty around which titles will trend, with the top outcome below 5%. Factors that would move this probability include the actual release schedule for Netflix originals in early May, competing platforms' releases, and real-time US viewership data as May 4 approaches. Resolution occurs when Netflix publishes official top-10 rankings for that date.

### Key factors

- Man on Fire: Season 1 has the highest current bid at 4%, but second-place Running Point: Season 2 trades at 27% on the global chart, indicating fragmentation across markets and uncertainty about US-specific performance
- Netflix's US top-show rankings update daily and depend on algorithmic weighting of hours watched, subscriber engagement, and new releases—any major drop or unexpected surge in a competing title could shift the leader
- The contract resolves May 4, 2026, giving approximately one day for final market adjustment; current low probabilities suggest no show has overwhelming prediction consensus for that specific date
- Trading volume of $33,956 in 24 hours on the leader indicates moderate but not exceptional liquidity for a binary outcome market
- The 1% gap between the leader (4%) and runner-up (3%) suggests marginal differentiation between top contenders rather than a clear consensus favorite

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/netflixrankshow
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=netflixrankshow

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.