# Will the #1 Show on Netflix have at least 35 million views

> At least 6 million leads at 96%, runner-up 84% across 5 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed just now.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/netflixtopviewstv
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:44.564Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-12

## Headline

- Leader: At least 6 million at 96%
- Runner-up: At least 9 million at 84%
- Outcomes: 5 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (5 contracts)
- 24h volume: $3K

## Bound contracts (5)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 6 million | 96¢ | +7pp | $100 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-1-show-on-netflix-have-at-least-6-million-kalshi-kxnetflixtopviewstv-26may11-6 |
| At least 9 million | 84¢ | +10pp | $971 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-1-show-on-netflix-have-at-least-9-million-kalshi-kxnetflixtopviewstv-26may11-9 |
| At least 12 million | 41¢ | +3pp | $743 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-1-show-on-netflix-have-at-least-12-millio-kalshi-kxnetflixtopviewstv-26may11-12 |
| At least 15 million | 3¢ | +3pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-1-show-on-netflix-have-at-least-15-millio-kalshi-kxnetflixtopviewstv-26may11-15 |
| At least 18 million | 3¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-1-show-on-netflix-have-at-least-18-millio-kalshi-kxnetflixtopviewstv-26may11-18 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | At least 6 million | At least 9 million | At least 12 million |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-06 | 85 | 67 | 17 |
| 2026-05-07 | 92 | 81 | 32 |
| 2026-05-08 | — | 91 | 35 |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-07 · At least 12 million +15pp 17→32¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-07 · At least 9 million +14pp 67→81¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-08 · At least 9 million +10pp 81→91¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-07 · At least 6 million +7pp 85→92¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-08 · At least 15 million +3pp 4→7¢ · kalshi

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/netflixtopviewstv
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=netflixtopviewstv

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.