# Netherlands vs. Japan

> Netherlands leads at 48%, runner-up 28% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 2 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/netherlands-vs-japan
Updated: 2026-05-09T07:20:26.111Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-14

## Headline

- Leader: Netherlands at 48%
- Runner-up: Japan at 28%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $985

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Netherlands | 48¢ | −1pp | $92 | polymarket | /markets/netherlands-vs-japan-netherlands-polymarket-0x2153377bdb8920a0d3227e9a2a68ddb9a001025918b695fe55f66677836e62c6 |
| Japan | 28¢ | ±0 | $568 | polymarket | /markets/netherlands-vs-japan-japan-polymarket-0x51fc7cfdaee135d6d0bed053e5fcd3652954414d9b9f4eef5dce2e9ea717f161 |
| Draw (Netherlands vs. Japan) | 25¢ | −1pp | $325 | polymarket | /markets/netherlands-vs-japan-draw-netherlands-vs-japan-polymarket-0x6bb8b2483eccb8fcae84cd42fd7d8e5e394689e0a06f95b189a77b4819cf0173 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Netherlands | Japan | Draw (Netherlands vs. Japan) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-30 | — | 26 | 26 |
| 2026-05-01 | 48 | 27 | 26 |
| 2026-05-02 | 49 | 27 | 25 |
| 2026-05-03 | 49 | — | 25 |
| 2026-05-08 | 48 | 28 | 25 |
| 2026-05-09 | — | 28 | — |

_8 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This probability indicates that prediction markets estimate a 49% chance the Netherlands defeats Japan in an upcoming match, with a 28% probability for Japan and 24% for a draw. The Netherlands is currently favored, though the market shows meaningful uncertainty. The pricing likely reflects team form, recent head-to-head records, and player availability. Key factors driving movement would include injury reports, lineup announcements, or updated betting odds from traditional sportsbooks. The match itself represents the primary catalyst that will resolve the outcome definitively. Market liquidity varies significantly across contracts, with the Netherlands winner contract showing the highest 24-hour volume ($178), suggesting that's where most traders are positioning themselves.

### Key factors

- Netherlands priced at 49% reflects a modest favorite status, not consensus—nearly half the probability mass is distributed to Japan (28%) and Draw (24%)
- 24-hour trading volume concentrates on Kalshi's Netherlands winner contract ($178), indicating that venue may be setting the marginal price
- Draw probability of 24% is material and suggests regular-time competition; resolution mechanism (draw allowed vs. knockout tiebreaker) would affect contract payouts
- Japan contract pricing is fragmented across platforms (25¢ on Kalshi vs. 28¢ on Polymarket), indicating potential arbitrage opportunities or venue-specific liquidity differences
- Upcoming match date and team sheet announcements would be primary catalysts to move probabilities, as would any late injury disclosures to key players

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/netherlands-vs-japan
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=netherlands-vs-japan

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.