# Netherlands vs. Sweden

> Netherlands leads at 56%, runner-up 25% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 2 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/netherlands-vs-sweden
Updated: 2026-05-09T07:20:27.538Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-20

## Headline

- Leader: Netherlands at 56%
- Runner-up: Draw (Netherlands vs. Sweden) at 25%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $17

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Netherlands | 56¢ | ±0 | $17 | polymarket | /markets/netherlands-vs-sweden-netherlands-polymarket-0xde92d563a6d742a4750c8c83a9c490ee5b02bd5d972a1765ab41c0f9095ef6c0 |
| Draw (Netherlands vs. Sweden) | 25¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/netherlands-vs-sweden-draw-netherlands-vs-sweden-polymarket-0x28c19c840bd010dc279a8f14a417a9389c18801b271b407d7634425e8305de0b |
| Sweden | 19¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/netherlands-vs-sweden-sweden-polymarket-0xfd2cd91be3b1215099cea2512b3c98c3e2da290064dfc0ca815d4e315fb6fdf9 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Netherlands | Draw (Netherlands vs. Sweden) | Sweden |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-30 | 55 | 26 | 25 |
| 2026-05-02 | 51 | 26 | 23 |
| 2026-05-08 | 53 | 25 | 19 |
| 2026-05-09 | — | — | 19 |

_8 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-07 · Netherlands +3pp 50→53¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-08 · Sweden −3pp 22→19¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This probability indicates that traders assess Netherlands at a 51% chance to win against Sweden, with Sweden at 26% and a draw at 23%. The market is pricing Netherlands as a slight favorite, though the narrow margin reflects meaningful uncertainty about the outcome. Key drivers include each team's recent form, head-to-head historical performance, and tactical matchups. The match result itself will fully resolve this contract, making the actual game the primary catalyst for price movement. Until the match is played, expectations about team lineups, injuries, or venue conditions could shift trader sentiment either direction.

### Key factors

- Netherlands is priced at 51¢ versus Sweden at 26¢, indicating a 25-percentage-point gap in implied win probability rather than a near-tie
- The draw option holds 23% implied probability, suggesting meaningful uncertainty about whether the match reaches a decisive result
- Trading volume on the direct Netherlands contract is minimal ($5 24h volume), indicating limited recent activity and potentially less liquidity to defend the current price
- Related contracts show mixed signals: Netherlands-Japan is nearly even (49¢ vs 51¢), while Japan alone prices at 28¢, requiring consistency across the linked outcomes
- The market structure depends on three separate binary contracts that must sum to consistent probabilities, creating arbitrage pressure if mispricing exists between them

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/netherlands-vs-sweden
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=netherlands-vs-sweden

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.