# How many people will Neuralink have implanted in 2026

> At least 25 leads at 83%, runner-up 67% across 6 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 25 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/neuralinkcount
Updated: 2026-06-29T01:20:49.317Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-01

## Headline

- Leader: At least 25 at 83%
- Runner-up: At least 30 at 67%
- Outcomes: 6 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (6 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (6)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 25 | 83¢ | −6pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/how-many-people-will-neuralink-have-implanted-in-2-kalshi-kxneuralinkcount-26-25 |
| At least 30 | 67¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/how-many-people-will-neuralink-have-implanted-in-2-kalshi-kxneuralinkcount-26-30 |
| At least 40 | 45¢ | −7pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/how-many-people-will-neuralink-have-implanted-in-2-kalshi-kxneuralinkcount-26-40 |
| At least 50 | 26¢ | −3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/how-many-people-will-neuralink-have-implanted-in-2-kalshi-kxneuralinkcount-26-50 |
| At least 75 | 11¢ | −3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/how-many-people-will-neuralink-have-implanted-in-2-kalshi-kxneuralinkcount-26-75 |
| At least 100 | 5¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/how-many-people-will-neuralink-have-implanted-in-2-kalshi-kxneuralinkcount-26-100 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | At least 25 | At least 30 | At least 40 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-30 | — | — | 50 |
| 2026-05-31 | — | 74 | 50 |
| 2026-06-03 | 88 | — | 58 |
| 2026-06-15 | 88 | — | 58 |
| 2026-06-16 | — | 79 | 59 |
| 2026-06-21 | — | 77 | 57 |
| 2026-06-22 | 89 | 81 | — |
| 2026-06-26 | 83 | 69 | 50 |
| 2026-06-27 | — | 67 | — |

_26 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-26 · At least 30 −12pp 81→69¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-26 · At least 40 −7pp 57→50¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-26 · At least 50 −7pp 37→30¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-26 · At least 25 −6pp 89→83¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-22 · At least 50 +6pp 29→35¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

Markets are pricing a 90% probability that Neuralink will have implanted at least 25 people by the end of 2026. This reflects confidence in the company's near-term surgical progress, following its first human implant in January 2024. The probability distribution narrows sharply above 25—only a 71% chance of 30+ implants and 32% for 50+—suggesting traders expect measured expansion rather than rapid scaling. Key uncertainties include manufacturing capacity, patient recruitment and screening timelines, and regulatory approval pace for expanded trial sites. The main resolution catalyst will be Neuralink's public disclosures and announcements, likely in quarterly updates or clinical trial communications throughout 2026, which will confirm the actual implant count achieved by year-end.

### Key factors

- Neuralink's manufacturing capability and ability to produce implants at the rate needed to reach 25+ surgical procedures by December 2026
- Rate of patient recruitment and medical screening for trial candidates, which constrains how many procedures can be performed
- Regulatory decisions on expanding trial sites and protocols beyond the current FDA-approved trials
- No major adverse events or serious complications in existing implant recipients that would halt enrollment
- Public disclosure frequency and reliability of implant-count reporting throughout 2026

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/neuralinkcount
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=neuralinkcount

## License

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