# Neutrl FDV above ___ one day after launch — $100M

> $20M leads at 84%, runner-up 57% across 8 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/neutrl-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:43.723Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2028-01-01

## Headline

- Leader: $20M at 84%
- Runner-up: $50M at 57%
- Outcomes: 8 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (8 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (8)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $20M | 84¢ | −3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/neutrl-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch-20m-polymarket-0x4822231ee22d116c8388f71d812684ab0582f426923dd52b345782ea2ee57573 |
| $50M | 57¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/neutrl-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch-50m-polymarket-0xf4361d8430a76bb0a3a0f5d1d3a5af0647be7f91f6a1a6ca471d7c0cc056412f |
| $100M | 49¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/neutrl-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch-100m-polymarket-0x753cabc85c9ec18724ec62c70e34e8ba3d86f4bb9d956ec695e2c373b76383fc |
| $300M | 36¢ | +2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/neutrl-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch-300m-polymarket-0xe00760a84cc7e5601bd84f4c99c3da844ac86254832cb6a9699134c9ee5d2983 |
| $200M | 29¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/neutrl-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch-200m-polymarket-0xc05ab1066ef5161996f82c2199a373c8893e1735072df1a53ff39cecc945313f |
| $500M | 12¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/neutrl-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch-500m-polymarket-0xbd07d18758c733ca6ebed5ddd924a41b2ed57fc5522e3bafd224027cf982b594 |
| $700M | 8¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/neutrl-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch-700m-polymarket-0xa7a915b449e52646dbd1863015f19a925aed5974b259b5c1418034aa82af32da |
| $1B | 6¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/neutrl-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch-1b-polymarket-0x12cd8d364618531b1e03aa8f2788ce316d4a53832117fd1a70fd4dc379ca906f |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | $20M | $50M | $100M |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 68 | 45 | 29 |
| 2026-04-25 | 65 | 52 | 47 |
| 2026-05-02 | 64 | 51 | 47 |
| 2026-05-08 | 84 | 57 | 50 |

_28 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · $20M +21pp 64→85¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · $200M −15pp 43→28¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · $500M −13pp 23→10¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · $200M +8pp 35→43¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · $300M −8pp 42→34¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This contract reflects market participants' view that Neutrl's fully diluted valuation (FDV) will exceed $100 million within one day of its launch. The 64% probability indicates traders consider this outcome likely but not certain. The market's confidence level is notably influenced by comparable token launches and typical FDV levels at debut, as well as the project's pre-launch positioning and investor interest. Key upside pressures include strong demand at launch and early trading momentum, while downside risks involve post-launch volatility and valuation resets. Resolution depends entirely on Neutrl's actual FDV calculation one day after launch becomes public, which represents the single definitive catalyst that will determine whether this contract settles as true or false.

### Key factors

- Current price of 64% reflects material probability but not consensus certainty; runner-up outcome at 54% shows significant remaining disagreement
- Related contracts show the market pricing lower FDV thresholds ($500M, $100M brackets) at substantially higher probabilities, suggesting FDV floor expectations vary by contract
- Volume concentration in competing contracts ($5580-$6051 daily volume) indicates active trading around adjacent price points rather than concentrated conviction
- Polymarket aggregation from 7 distinct contracts means outcome reflects distributed opinion rather than single centralized forecast
- Resolution requires precise FDV calculation methodology one day post-launch; ambiguity in how FDV is measured could influence final settlement

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/neutrl-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=neutrl-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.