# Nevada Governor Democratic Primary Winner

> Closed. Last odds frozen 7 h ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nevada-governor-democratic-primary-winner
Updated: 2026-06-11T07:20:52.734Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-06-09

## Headline

- Probability: 97% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Polymarket (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $456

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Ford | 97¢ | +1pp | $456 | polymarket | /markets/nevada-governor-democratic-primary-winner-aaron-fo-polymarket-0xf762b70509052cd499fcb48285f09573113874bb004cb6ab85f3e7d203569de2 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-17 | 98 |
| 2026-05-28 | 98 |
| 2026-06-04 | 98 |
| 2026-06-10 | 100 |

_19 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This probability indicates that prediction market participants assign a 94% chance to a specific candidate winning the Nevada Democratic gubernatorial primary. The high concentration reflects strong consensus among traders, though the 4% allocated to alternatives suggests some residual uncertainty about whether an unexpected challenger might gain traction. Primary outcomes typically depend on candidate fundraising, endorsement patterns, turnout models, and recent polling data. The resolution will occur when Nevada holds its primary election, which is the key event that determines the outcome definitively. Market prices can shift if new information emerges about candidate viability, strategic withdrawals, or shifting voter preferences in the months before the primary contest.

### Key factors

- Leader holds 94% implied probability versus 4% for runner-up, indicating strong but not overwhelming consensus among market participants
- Primary election date determines final resolution; shifts in candidate momentum or field composition prior to voting could alter current pricing
- Candidate fundraising totals, endorsements from state party figures, and polling trends are observable metrics that typically correlate with primary performance
- Market volume and contract liquidity suggest moderate interest; higher trading activity could indicate either confidence in current odds or emerging doubts
- Historical performance in previous Nevada Democratic contests and candidate name recognition within the state provide baseline reference points for evaluating primary electability

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nevada-governor-democratic-primary-winner
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=nevada-governor-democratic-primary-winner
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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