# Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 57% across 1 contract — refreshed 51 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/new-country-join-abraham-accords
Updated: 2026-05-28T20:20:07.262Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-31

## Headline

- Probability: 57% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Polymarket (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $4K

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? | 57¢ | −3pp | $4K | polymarket | /markets/will-a-new-country-join-the-abraham-accords-before-polymarket-0x0a26a2aeaee92f943b6a5649c4a096766f07675c6c710527fca730bd1e395797 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-28 | 53 |
| 2026-05-14 | 37 |
| 2026-05-21 | 49 |
| 2026-05-28 | 53 |

_28 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-24 · Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? +12pp 44→56¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-27 · Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? +8pp 48→56¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-21 · Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? −7pp 56→49¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-26 · Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? −7pp 55→48¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-22 · Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? −5pp 49→44¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This probability reflects the likelihood that at least one additional country will formally join the Abraham Accords framework between now and the end of 2026. The accords, which began with UAE and Bahrain normalizing ties with Israel in 2020, represent a shift in regional diplomacy. The current 52% probability suggests roughly even odds, reflecting both ongoing diplomatic momentum in the region and significant barriers to expansion. Key drivers include the political stability of potential signatories, their domestic political constraints, and broader regional developments. The resolution will depend on official announcements by countries committing to the framework's terms, making diplomatic activity and policy statements from regional governments the primary indicators to monitor through the remainder of 2026.

### Key factors

- Track official statements and diplomatic visits from countries identified as potential signatories, particularly in the Gulf and North African regions
- Monitor changes in US administration priorities and Middle East policy, as American diplomatic support has been instrumental in previous signings
- Observe regional security developments and Israeli-Palestinian escalations, which could either motivate or deter new country participation
- Assess domestic political cycles in candidate countries, as leadership transitions or elections could shift willingness to normalize relations
- Watch for any formal framework expansions or modifications announced by existing signatories, which could signal openness to new members

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/new-country-join-abraham-accords
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=new-country-join-abraham-accords

## License

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