# New England Revolution vs. Charlotte FC

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 28% across 20 contracts — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/new-england-revolution-vs-charlotte-fc
Updated: 2026-05-03T14:35:23.002Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-02

## Headline

- Probability: 28% (liquidity-weighted across 20 contracts)
- Cross-venue: Kalshi 30% / Polymarket 25% — 5pp spread
- 24h volume: $26K

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Vrabel | 78¢ | +2pp | $12K | kalshi | /markets/who-will-be-the-head-coach-of-new-england-for-week-kalshi-kxcoachondate-ne26-mvra |
| New England Patriots | 5¢ | +33pp | $5K | polymarket | /markets/nfl-champion-2027-new-england-patriots-polymarket-0x8133843fe31063a6cc17c4582c023a832ee64802c98fcc08d79521629831d3c4 |
| New England | 3¢ | — | $4K | kalshi | /markets/will-new-england-win-the-2027-pro-football-champio-kalshi-kxsb-27-ne |
| New England | 82¢ | ±0 | $4K | kalshi | /markets/what-will-be-aj-browns-next-team-new-england-kalshi-kxnextteamnfl-26abrown-ne |
| New England | 33¢ | — | $686 | kalshi | /markets/new-england-vs-philadelphia-winner-new-england-kalshi-kxmlsgame-26may09nephi-ne |
| Philadelphia | 36¢ | +17pp | $428 | kalshi | /markets/new-england-vs-philadelphia-winner-philadelphia-kalshi-kxmlsgame-26may09nephi-phi |
| New England | 10¢ | — | $428 | kalshi | /markets/will-new-england-win-the-pro-football-afc-champion-kalshi-kxnflafcchamp-27-ne |
| Josh McDaniels | 12¢ | ±0 | $245 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-be-the-head-coach-of-new-england-for-week-kalshi-kxcoachondate-ne26-jmcd |
| New England | 37¢ | +2pp | $96 | kalshi | /markets/will-new-england-win-the-pro-football-afc-east-div-kalshi-kxnflafceast-27-ne |
| New England Patriots | 3¢ | +1pp | $57 | polymarket | /markets/where-will-maxx-crosby-play-in-2026-new-england-pa-polymarket-0xc1e89745d47201cc7ef7088e5d415b2b7181f776b078a19a58686c8f192ddf27 |
| Where will Dexter Lawrence play Week 1?: New England Patriots | 6¢ | −21pp | $55 | polymarket | /markets/pro-football-where-will-dexter-lawrence-play-week-polymarket-0xe97020c5df4ab15fada2a8c2062fee4b615d7d68e3678695b5492754eb10aa73 |
| Croatia | 20¢ | +1pp | $40 | polymarket | /markets/england-vs-croatia-croatia-polymarket-0x90b9d20ece132c342654f98e0826e972134b10f58d4789c2662bdc00eee44b13 |
| Stays with New England or Retires | 10¢ | −1pp | $39 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-be-stefon-diggss-next-team-stays-with-ne-kalshi-kxnextteamnfl-26sdig-ne |
| New England | 24¢ | −1pp | $25 | kalshi | /markets/buffalos-1st-opponent-at-highmark-stadium-new-engl-kalshi-kx1sthomegame-buf26-ne |
| England | 57¢ | +2pp | $20 | polymarket | /markets/england-vs-croatia-england-polymarket-0xb361c29b5481164886627cb175ed76792df30902e66ec329c0a3853f807fe8e9 |
| IR Iran | 53¢ | ±0 | $10 | polymarket | /markets/ir-iran-vs-new-zealand-ir-iran-polymarket-0xe70fd51f42e61fc309d8e57019a7b76c8dc7bd19b473351d56ff1e125ae0d9d4 |
| New Zealand | 24¢ | +3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/ir-iran-vs-new-zealand-new-zealand-polymarket-0x4d32282db59ec449edbc191b4b487b7f8218c07d6f94b0c01e2e7ddf6964c26d |
| New England | 4¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-new-england-have-the-best-regular-season-reco-kalshi-kxrecordnflbest-27-ne |
| New England Revolution | 31¢ | −3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-club-will-cristiano-ronaldo-play-for-next-ne-polymarket-0x162c2887f5aacb82c1fdfd7bcb5a3d7767187fc40474ba8e95b15d7e9c39b850 |
| Tie | 27¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/new-england-vs-philadelphia-winner-tie-kalshi-kxmlsgame-26may09nephi-tie |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-08 | 23 |
| 2026-04-19 | 27 |
| 2026-04-26 | 34 |
| 2026-05-03 | 37 |

_26 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-04-28 · New England Revolution +50pp 0→50¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-28 · New England Patriots +33pp 6→39¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Where will Dexter Lawrence play Week 1?: New England Patriots −21pp 39→18¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Philadelphia +17pp 20→37¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-02 · Where will Dexter Lawrence play Week 1?: New England Patriots −9pp 48→39¢ · polymarket

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/new-england-revolution-vs-charlotte-fc
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=new-england-revolution-vs-charlotte-fc

## License

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