# New Jersey Democratic Senate Primary Winner

> Cory Booker leads at 97%, runner-up 3% across 2 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/new-jersey-democratic-senate-primary-winner
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:39.101Z
Category: general · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-02

## Headline

- Leader: Cory Booker at 97%
- Runner-up: Gregory Tomaini at 3%
- Outcomes: 2 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cory Booker | 97¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/new-jersey-democratic-senate-primary-winner-cory-b-polymarket-0x6f469bb6d087323e8fe41d5bb3d9c32ae243fafdcee240e4aef3252e8ffc59c4 |
| Gregory Tomaini | 3¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/new-jersey-democratic-senate-primary-winner-gregor-polymarket-0x5350054eb5a80de5594a46fe895dfcd1e339cc9db8dfbbe4231dd9dcc19e7a12 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Cory Booker | Gregory Tomaini |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-13 | 97 | — |
| 2026-04-25 | 94 | — |
| 2026-04-28 | 90 | 18 |
| 2026-05-02 | 98 | 8 |
| 2026-05-08 | 98 | 7 |

_23 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-02 · Cory Booker +6pp 92→98¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · Cory Booker −3pp 98→95¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-07 · Cory Booker +3pp 95→98¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This 97% probability indicates market participants assess one specific candidate as heavily favored to win the New Jersey Democratic Senate primary. The high concentration reflects either strong polling data, significant fundraising advantages, or establishment endorsements backing the frontrunner. Conversely, a 3% probability on the alternative suggests limited confidence in challenger viability, though primary dynamics can shift with late-stage endorsements, debate performance, or unexpected campaign developments. The resolution will occur on New Jersey's primary election date, when voters cast ballots and determine the Democratic nominee for the general election. Market confidence at this level typically reflects available polling and candidate positioning weeks before voting.

### Key factors

- Primary election date and voter turnout patterns in New Jersey Democratic electorate
- Relative fundraising and cash-on-hand figures between frontrunner and challenger(s)
- Public polling data released in the final weeks before the primary
- Endorsements from New Jersey political figures, unions, and Democratic establishment organizations
- Campaign spending and advertising intensity in the final period before voting

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/new-jersey-democratic-senate-primary-winner
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=new-jersey-democratic-senate-primary-winner
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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