# New Mexico Governor Democratic Primary Winner

> Closed. Last odds frozen 4 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/new-mexico-governor-democratic-primary-winner
Updated: 2026-06-04T01:20:12.748Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-06-02

## Headline

- Probability: 97% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Polymarket (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $3K

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deb Haaland | 97¢ | +1pp | $3K | polymarket | /markets/new-mexico-governor-democratic-primary-winner-deb-polymarket-0x21c5db990b49634e0b5598596bacbfaa7890607ae2846e940b4a21b76e1db1c5 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | 89 |
| 2026-05-25 | 97 |
| 2026-06-01 | 98 |
| 2026-06-03 | 100 |

_23 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This probability reflects market expectations that a particular candidate will win the New Mexico Democratic gubernatorial primary. The 84% price indicates traders view this outcome as clearly favored, though not certain. Primary dynamics typically hinge on candidate name recognition, fundraising capacity, endorsements from party insiders, and ground organization in key districts. Early polling, if available, would show relative candidate strength, while recent campaign announcements or pivots could shift expectations. The primary election itself—the definitive catalyst—will resolve this contract and determine whether the current market consensus aligns with actual voter behavior. Until then, factors like turnout projections, demographic shifts, and competitor withdrawals would materially influence the probability.

### Key factors

- Candidate name recognition and existing statewide elected office experience among Democratic primary voters
- Fundraising totals and cash-on-hand reported through campaign finance disclosures as of late April 2026
- Recent endorsements from sitting Democratic officials, party leadership, and organized labor groups
- Primary election date and early/mail-in voting participation rates relative to historical turnout
- Candidate viability assessed through internal or public polling within 3-4 weeks of the primary vote

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/new-mexico-governor-democratic-primary-winner
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=new-mexico-governor-democratic-primary-winner
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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