# New pandemic in 2026

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 14% across 1 contract — refreshed 2 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/new-pandemic
Updated: 2026-05-09T05:50:40.854Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-31

## Headline

- Probability: 14% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Polymarket (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $10K

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New pandemic in 2026? | 14¢ | +1pp | $10K | polymarket | /markets/new-pandemic-in-2026-polymarket-0xfaa433e162e020c56c522acb2f9f7215ce6e4e4391c4fb42beba14275c0a43fe |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-11 | 13 |
| 2026-04-25 | 12 |
| 2026-04-30 | 9 |
| 2026-05-08 | 14 |

_14 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · New pandemic in 2026? +3pp 9→12¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This 12% probability reflects the market's assessment that a pandemic meeting standard definitions will emerge and spread globally in 2026. The relatively low probability reflects both the difficulty of predicting novel disease emergence and the absence of currently known pathogens with pandemic potential at this stage of the year. The probability could shift based on detection of novel viruses with high transmissibility or severity in surveillance systems, unusual respiratory illness clusters, or formal declarations by health authorities. The year's resolution depends largely on how definitional thresholds are applied—whether a pandemic requires WHO declaration, cross-border spread, or specific case counts. Continued disease surveillance data, laboratory confirmations of novel pathogens, and official health organization statements through year-end 2026 will determine the outcome.

### Key factors

- Lack of credible reports of novel pathogens with documented human-to-human transmission as of May 2026
- Definition sensitivity: resolution likely hinges on whether WHO declaration, cross-border spread, or case thresholds trigger affirmative outcome
- Current global disease surveillance systems have not flagged emerging threats meeting pandemic criteria in 2026 year-to-date
- Historical base rate of pandemic emergence varies significantly by decade, making prediction difficult without current epidemiological indicators
- Resolution authority (WHO declarations, health ministry designations, or contract-specified case counts) will ultimately determine binary outcome rather than market consensus alone

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/new-pandemic
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=new-pandemic

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.