# New York City FC vs. Los Angeles FC - More Markets

> O/U 1.5 leads at 66%, runner-up 53% across 9 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 3 d ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/new-york-city-fc-vs-los-angeles-fc-more-markets
Updated: 2026-05-06T00:05:41.725Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-06

## Headline

- Leader: O/U 1.5 at 66%
- Runner-up: O/U 2.5 at 53%
- Outcomes: 9 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (9 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (9)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| O/U 1.5 | 66¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/new-york-city-fc-vs-los-angeles-fc-more-markets-ou-polymarket-0x0e25b551a118495f7e2c433fd68e6e53fcf38d6641d1723c648e6161691a6674 |
| O/U 2.5 | 53¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/new-york-city-fc-vs-los-angeles-fc-more-markets-ou-polymarket-0xfb53dd6e13e99ece1a90b3bc7f0934ba6bdf58aef1c18fd059cd33befde82bf6 |
| Both Teams to Score | 52¢ | +2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/new-york-city-fc-vs-los-angeles-fc-more-markets-bo-polymarket-0x361d0825fd5d45ed9f9fffca2764928f720727ea72d2576db6974c6d2de1fcba |
| O/U 3.5 | 35¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/new-york-city-fc-vs-los-angeles-fc-more-markets-ou-polymarket-0x087e96b348af724088fc5c0c9620932971bbee21079bd0619bac94f9d8554031 |
| New York City FC (-1.5) | 32¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/new-york-city-fc-vs-los-angeles-fc-more-markets-ne-polymarket-0x52ecc53ae751a4a04406a38d2eae3d0bb5c00a4010daf306acb60d6c2f391539 |
| New York City FC (-2.5) | 29¢ | −2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/new-york-city-fc-vs-los-angeles-fc-more-markets-ne-polymarket-0x749d6005cbd935d0457b1ba46084f8fed6e75daea118208b0a6f978d36a9214e |
| Los Angeles FC (-1.5) | 28¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/new-york-city-fc-vs-los-angeles-fc-more-markets-lo-polymarket-0xe4ead24bcac5166d1bae6a470ba123e2cbdb92fd779b7db7398eb820073c9aca |
| Los Angeles FC (-2.5) | 28¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/new-york-city-fc-vs-los-angeles-fc-more-markets-lo-polymarket-0x8cd527f3f12d1be337c35190a6bfe356675629909cbf9b532efdb5173accd5dd |
| O/U 4.5 | 28¢ | −4pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/new-york-city-fc-vs-los-angeles-fc-more-markets-ou-polymarket-0x3b1359b9f8079ea94c2bd322eac8ad2a438ee02512379e968426b64f1395c2a6 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | O/U 1.5 | O/U 2.5 | Both Teams to Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | — | 54 | 51 |
| 2026-05-03 | 62 | 54 | 51 |
| 2026-05-06 | 65 | 51 | 50 |
| 2026-05-07 | 67 | 52 | 50 |
| 2026-05-08 | 67 | 52 | 52 |
| 2026-05-09 | — | 52 | 54 |

_6 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · New York City FC (-2.5) −8pp 34→26¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · Los Angeles FC (-2.5) −8pp 33→25¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-07 · Los Angeles FC (-2.5) +8pp 25→33¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-08 · New York City FC (-2.5) +7pp 27→34¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-07 · Los Angeles FC (-1.5) +6pp 27→33¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This 51% probability indicates that market participants view New York City FC as slightly more likely than Los Angeles FC to win this matchup. The probability reflects recent form, head-to-head records, and home/away considerations in the 2025-26 season. Factors moving this probability include team roster changes, injury status of key players, and recent performance trends. The market shows some divergence across contracts—the winner market prices New York at 54% while other predictive markets suggest lower confidence—suggesting uncertainty about underlying team strength. The resolution event occurs when these teams complete their match; the immediate catalyst is the scheduled game date, after which the outcome becomes definitive.

### Key factors

- Polymarket aggregates five distinct contracts with significant price dispersion (21¢ to 54¢), indicating genuine analytical disagreement rather than consensus
- New York's 54% win probability on the direct matchup contract carries $2,958 in 24-hour volume, the highest among winner-market contracts, but represents a modest advantage not a strong favorite
- Los Angeles is priced at 45% in the head-to-head contract, only 9 percentage points below New York despite the 51% headline, suggesting the contracts are measuring different timeframes or market conditions
- Total runs markets (54¢ for Over 8.5 runs) imply expected offensive output assumptions that should be reconciled with historical performance patterns
- The current leading contract holder (0x361d0825fd5d45ed9f9fffca2764928f720727ea72d2576db6974c6d2de1fcba) has positioned at 51%, which exceeds both the direct winner-market prices and runner-up position, indicating potential mispricing or information edge

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/new-york-city-fc-vs-los-angeles-fc-more-markets
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=new-york-city-fc-vs-los-angeles-fc-more-markets

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