# New York City FC vs. Los Angeles FC

> New York City FC leads at 49%, runner-up 34% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed just now.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/new-york-city-fc-vs-los-angeles-fc
Updated: 2026-05-03T15:05:55.376Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-06

## Headline

- Leader: New York City FC at 49%
- Runner-up: Los Angeles FC at 34%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $5

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York City FC | 49¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/new-york-city-fc-vs-los-angeles-fc-new-york-city-f-polymarket-0x07aa441123aa310a7949312c6233f1d291bd78e1fe5da57c94fa1f4d03c40a4c |
| Los Angeles FC | 34¢ | +10pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/new-york-city-fc-vs-los-angeles-fc-los-angeles-fc-polymarket-0x48b1ea27906ecaefada5b8f54b145f1699d3a098b41a5622608438c209e07948 |
| Draw (New York City FC vs. Los Angeles FC) | 31¢ | +8pp | $5 | polymarket | /markets/new-york-city-fc-vs-los-angeles-fc-draw-new-york-c-polymarket-0x5a91d9281a150fbb85af01aec69213aafb527507bfcf6b1e8ebca90fcbb6bd67 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | New York City FC | Los Angeles FC | Draw (New York City FC vs. Los Angeles FC) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | 51 | 18 | 18 |
| 2026-05-03 | 51 | 28 | 26 |

_2 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-03 · Los Angeles FC +10pp 18→28¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Draw (New York City FC vs. Los Angeles FC) +8pp 18→26¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This 50% probability reflects market expectations that New York M will win an upcoming matchup against Los Angeles A. The leading contract prices New York M's victory at 50%, while Los Angeles A is priced at 45%, indicating slight implied confidence in New York M based on current form, roster composition, or recent performance. Key drivers of this level include matchup history, recent team performance trends, and injury status of key players. The primary catalyst for movement will be the scheduled game itself—once played, the outcome resolves the uncertainty entirely. Secondary factors include any roster changes or injury updates that emerge before game time, which could shift the probabilities in either direction based on team strength assessments.

### Key factors

- New York M contract trades at 54¢ on Kalshi while Los Angeles A contract trades at 45¢, indicating market participants assign higher probability to a New York M victory
- Total runs markets show 54¢ for Over 8.5 runs but only 21¢ for Over 12.5 runs, suggesting expectation of moderate offensive output rather than high-scoring game
- 24-hour trading volumes vary significantly across contracts ($9,610 to $363), with lower volumes on extreme outcomes indicating less consensus at price extremes
- Leader holds 50% implied probability while runner-up sits at 35%, leaving roughly 15% probability unaccounted for across three-way outcome structure
- Kalshi platform shows these are active markets with recent 24-hour trading, suggesting prices reflect current team information rather than stale data

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/new-york-city-fc-vs-los-angeles-fc
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=new-york-city-fc-vs-los-angeles-fc

## License

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