# New York Red Bulls vs. FC Dallas - More Markets

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 47% across 20 contracts — refreshed 13 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/new-york-red-bulls-vs-fc-dallas-more-markets
Updated: 2026-05-03T14:50:28.568Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-02

## Headline

- Probability: 47% (liquidity-weighted across 20 contracts)
- Cross-venue: Kalshi 48% / Polymarket 36% — 12pp spread
- 24h volume: $28K

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 8.5 runs scored | 54¢ | +1pp | $11K | kalshi | /markets/baltimore-vs-new-york-y-total-runs-over-85-runs-sc-kalshi-kxmlbtotal-26may031335balnyy-9 |
| Over 8.5 runs scored | 54¢ | +1pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/new-york-m-vs-los-angeles-a-total-runs-over-85-run-kalshi-kxmlbtotal-26may031607nymlaa-9 |
| Over 10.5 runs scored | 36¢ | +3pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/new-york-m-vs-los-angeles-a-total-runs-over-105-ru-kalshi-kxmlbtotal-26may031607nymlaa-11 |
| New York Y over 7.5 runs scored | 23¢ | +12pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-new-york-y-score-over-75-runs-new-york-y-over-kalshi-kxmlbteamtotal-26may031335balnyy-nyy8 |
| New York Y over 4.5 runs scored | 55¢ | +27pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-new-york-y-score-over-45-runs-new-york-y-over-kalshi-kxmlbteamtotal-26may031335balnyy-nyy5 |
| New York Y over 5.5 runs scored | 44¢ | +29pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-new-york-y-score-over-55-runs-new-york-y-over-kalshi-kxmlbteamtotal-26may031335balnyy-nyy6 |
| Over 4.5 runs scored | 86¢ | — | $1K | kalshi | /markets/baltimore-vs-new-york-y-total-runs-over-45-runs-sc-kalshi-kxmlbtotal-26may031335balnyy-5 |
| Over 7.5 runs scored | 62¢ | +2pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/baltimore-vs-new-york-y-total-runs-over-75-runs-sc-kalshi-kxmlbtotal-26may031335balnyy-8 |
| Over 12.5 runs scored | 22¢ | +2pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/new-york-m-vs-los-angeles-a-total-runs-over-125-ru-kalshi-kxmlbtotal-26may031607nymlaa-13 |
| Over 6.5 runs scored | 72¢ | +2pp | $674 | kalshi | /markets/new-york-m-vs-los-angeles-a-total-runs-over-65-run-kalshi-kxmlbtotal-26may031607nymlaa-7 |
| Over 9.5 runs scored | 43¢ | +6pp | $438 | kalshi | /markets/new-york-m-vs-los-angeles-a-total-runs-over-95-run-kalshi-kxmlbtotal-26may031607nymlaa-10 |
| Totals: Over 1.5 goals scored | 75¢ | +2pp | $418 | kalshi | /markets/dc-united-at-new-york-city-totals-over-15-goals-sc-kalshi-kxmlstotal-26may03nycdcu-1 |
| Totals: Over 2.5 goals scored | 50¢ | −1pp | $360 | kalshi | /markets/dc-united-at-new-york-city-totals-over-25-goals-sc-kalshi-kxmlstotal-26may03nycdcu-2 |
| Over 7.5 runs scored | 61¢ | +2pp | $341 | kalshi | /markets/new-york-m-vs-los-angeles-a-total-runs-over-75-run-kalshi-kxmlbtotal-26may031607nymlaa-8 |
| Over 10.5 runs scored | 36¢ | +3pp | $324 | kalshi | /markets/baltimore-vs-new-york-y-total-runs-over-105-runs-s-kalshi-kxmlbtotal-26may031335balnyy-11 |
| New York M over 5.5 runs scored | 36¢ | +4pp | $287 | kalshi | /markets/will-new-york-m-score-over-55-runs-new-york-m-over-kalshi-kxmlbteamtotal-26may031607nymlaa-nym6 |
| Over 11.5 runs scored | 27¢ | +3pp | $134 | kalshi | /markets/new-york-m-vs-los-angeles-a-total-runs-over-115-ru-kalshi-kxmlbtotal-26may031607nymlaa-12 |
| New York | 9¢ | ±0 | $76 | kalshi | /markets/what-states-will-redistrict-before-the-2026-congre-kalshi-kxredistricting-26-ny |
| New York M over 3.5 runs scored | 61¢ | −1pp | $30 | kalshi | /markets/will-new-york-m-score-over-35-runs-new-york-m-over-kalshi-kxmlbteamtotal-26may031607nymlaa-nym4 |
| New York Red Bulls | 36¢ | −2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-club-will-cristiano-ronaldo-play-for-next-ne-polymarket-0x2047d9fd0c8f157f49ea004d8da9adb574189ea9fc28c68c6d7b407ddb037631 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-26 | 55 |
| 2026-05-03 | 44 |

_8 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-03 · New York Y over 5.5 runs scored +29pp 9→38¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-03 · New York Y over 4.5 runs scored +27pp 26→53¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-29 · New York Red Bulls +22pp 26→48¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · New York Y over 7.5 runs scored +12pp 6→18¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-03 · Over 9.5 runs scored +6pp 37→43¢ · kalshi

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/new-york-red-bulls-vs-fc-dallas-more-markets
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=new-york-red-bulls-vs-fc-dallas-more-markets

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.