# New Zealand vs. Egypt

> Egypt leads at 55%, runner-up 24% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/new-zealand-vs-egypt
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:43.686Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-22

## Headline

- Leader: Egypt at 55%
- Runner-up: Draw (New Zealand vs. Egypt) at 24%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $12

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Egypt | 55¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/new-zealand-vs-egypt-egypt-polymarket-0x16c981b47490212bbb7d70edcccc419a84ff5771bc85c1b7abae37128975953e |
| Draw (New Zealand vs. Egypt) | 24¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/new-zealand-vs-egypt-draw-new-zealand-vs-egypt-polymarket-0x0f8de21a80996a54ced1327cbf4e0702d417e1f49ec6ebe267bc5664c7f36d90 |
| New Zealand | 20¢ | −4pp | $12 | polymarket | /markets/new-zealand-vs-egypt-new-zealand-polymarket-0x3a3de929cb6fb7a4eff6aeae1b515895de1e358ed9a2adc24eb04862251d132d |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Egypt | Draw (New Zealand vs. Egypt) | New Zealand |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-30 | — | 27 | — |
| 2026-05-01 | 56 | 27 | 25 |
| 2026-05-02 | 56 | 27 | 24 |
| 2026-05-03 | 56 | 27 | 24 |
| 2026-05-06 | 54 | 27 | 25 |
| 2026-05-07 | 55 | 26 | 21 |
| 2026-05-08 | 55 | — | — |

_7 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-07 · New Zealand −4pp 25→21¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This represents the current expectation that Egypt will win in a New Zealand vs. Egypt matchup. At 56%, Egypt is favored but not heavily — the runner-up sits at 27%, indicating meaningful uncertainty about the outcome. The probability reflects assessments of team strength, recent performance, and home-field advantages. Key drivers of this level include squad composition, recent form in competitive matches, and any injuries to key players heading into the fixture. The resolution will depend on the actual match result whenever this event is scheduled. Market participants appear to be pricing in Egypt as the slight favorite based on available information, though the gap to second place suggests this is contested and subject to shift as more data emerges.

### Key factors

- Current squad health and availability of key players for both teams
- Head-to-head historical record and recent performance in qualifying or tournament play
- Home-field advantage status and venue logistics if applicable
- Recent form in competitive international matches prior to fixture
- Market depth and trading volume remain modest, suggesting limited institutional liquidity behind this price

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/new-zealand-vs-egypt
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=new-zealand-vs-egypt

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.