# Newark Mayoral Election

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 97% across 1 contract — refreshed 15 h ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/newark-mayoral-election
Updated: 2026-05-08T16:05:47.578Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-12

## Headline

- Probability: 97% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Polymarket (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $18

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ras Baraka | 97¢ | +1pp | $18 | polymarket | /markets/newark-mayoral-election-ras-baraka-polymarket-0xe4615b9500d2aeb49c14f5011e7a11aff127a4ec195ae46f4fe953065247902f |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 90 |
| 2026-04-25 | 96 |
| 2026-05-01 | 97 |
| 2026-05-08 | 98 |

_19 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This 97% probability reflects market confidence that a specific candidate will win Newark's mayoral election. The high level suggests either an incumbent facing weak opposition or one candidate with substantial structural advantages. Mayoral elections typically turn on local factors: incumbent approval ratings, challenger viability, voter turnout patterns, and endorsement consolidation. The main catalyst that would resolve remaining uncertainty is either a significant polling shift, an unexpected candidate entry or withdrawal, or election day itself. Currently the market is pricing in a decisive outcome rather than a competitive race, though the 3% tail represents scenarios where late-breaking developments or turnout surprises create an upset.

### Key factors

- Incumbent status and current approval ratings among Newark voters
- Strength and funding level of the primary opposition candidate or candidates
- Voter registration and likely turnout demographics in Newark for this election cycle
- Recent scandals, indictments, or major controversies affecting the frontrunner
- Timing and results of any recent local polling or straw polls

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/newark-mayoral-election
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=newark-mayoral-election
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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