# Newcastle United Jets FC vs. Central Coast Mariners FC

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 31% across 20 contracts — refreshed 14 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/newcastle-united-jets-fc-vs-central-coast-mariners-fc
Updated: 2026-05-03T15:05:49.506Z
Category: general
Status: active

## Headline

- Probability: 31% (liquidity-weighted across 20 contracts)
- Venue: Polymarket (20 contracts)
- 24h volume: $827

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| United States | 48¢ | +1pp | $298 | polymarket | /markets/united-states-vs-paraguay-united-states-polymarket-0x26c10c27cde58e2d6214d65ab562d8142d34723b3b6ec3f40836d24f6d22dfc9 |
| Incheon United FC | 29¢ | −4pp | $253 | polymarket | /markets/daejeon-hana-citizen-fc-vs-incheon-united-fc-inche-polymarket-0x10cbc272a36c8985d46640eaedb6a58c32cd54479bf4fc87e8d45f07774077dd |
| 17th Place (Relegation Survivor): Newcastle United | 5¢ | ±0 | $229 | polymarket | /markets/epl-17th-place-relegation-survivor-newcastle-unite-polymarket-0xe6ce8f48837e9dc2ce4f40a246552e834dbce06729c4c283b253b713e2a2fe3e |
| O/U 3.5 | 23¢ | −1pp | $29 | polymarket | /markets/daejeon-hana-citizen-fc-vs-incheon-united-fc-more-polymarket-0x5d58f60bcef71fbea32cd17317002ed65fef80adb99080b2bf49aa94cf71ee3d |
| Incheon United FC (-2.5) | 4¢ | +1pp | $11 | polymarket | /markets/daejeon-hana-citizen-fc-vs-incheon-united-fc-more-polymarket-0x4ce71d662883de795b58a84a72031b1561a1c077297aabf78b6b2e3baf43a7ed |
| Draw (United States vs. Paraguay) | 27¢ | ±0 | $7 | polymarket | /markets/united-states-vs-paraguay-draw-united-states-vs-pa-polymarket-0x3774cdf17e49143a4f6e10812df8b06113731493842fccc52dea045a1744ae61 |
| O/U 4.5 | 12¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/universidad-central-de-venezuela-fc-vs-independien-polymarket-0x379684abeac1f75e84192a96d0f4b9ab5f5fa1231c2577c7062e90c6c5b8337b |
| Draw (CA Barracas Central vs. Club Olimpia) | 30¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/ca-barracas-central-vs-club-olimpia-draw-ca-barrac-polymarket-0x56b99e08aa98928f055e0e6f0490d58a7eb0c26d89c9db450bd099de789ce1d8 |
| O/U 4.5 | 29¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/kagoshima-united-fc-vs-ita-trinita-more-markets-ou-polymarket-0x58a7057d70e71e5d33a2d634f3f5da7546509c59bf8117285f1e3f6ee2f5db3a |
| O/U 4.5 | 29¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/fujieda-myfc-vs-fukushima-united-fc-more-markets-o-polymarket-0xe281bebf883174950005c88d94614922a1d58445e2fd7f8582f73a1eb3b9c04a |
| O/U 4.5 | 14¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/ca-rosario-central-vs-club-libertad-more-markets-o-polymarket-0xb4dcaf3bd3dfdf104a2120aa4096bada037df92b8eaad0dad1d68d470bd8a97b |
| O/U 3.5 | 41¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/fc-imabari-vs-kchi-united-sc-more-markets-ou-35-polymarket-0x58385daf88ca47fa200b7d8f644073a7f5d65f7f79076ce514b59fe11065685c |
| O/U 3.5 | 41¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/fujieda-myfc-vs-fukushima-united-fc-more-markets-o-polymarket-0xae2766d22cfd12afb304c7d9808f40f1e422bd74cf37fd95b22f2660775a6491 |
| O/U 1.5 | 65¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/fc-imabari-vs-kchi-united-sc-more-markets-ou-15-polymarket-0xf48e4bd6e403f37de521156a00891c2cf966681a80ae63e84a411c37c92c939a |
| CA Rosario Central (-2.5) | 19¢ | +4pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/ca-rosario-central-vs-club-libertad-more-markets-c-polymarket-0x178a18f318990fe5e5e0543e2ed12941dac3b6f0e307b6ffe60800456150e4f2 |
| Fujieda MYFC (-1.5) | 32¢ | −2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/fujieda-myfc-vs-fukushima-united-fc-more-markets-f-polymarket-0xb2f97dd54209caf84e171256fe5d32ab62b45132bd16e70400225d48f8cc27c2 |
| Winner: Newcastle Jets | 45¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/a-league-soccer-winner-newcastle-jets-polymarket-0x1b9cfe89f82ff0068f4f9b70ff895c8a703e57ef657f9eb540babc2f1ff879eb |
| O/U 2.5 | 50¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/fujieda-myfc-vs-fukushima-united-fc-more-markets-o-polymarket-0x799b4127a82931bf9daf48211943e47b260b95de63fb22de6bed85cd69a0e88e |
| Both Teams to Score | 43¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/ca-rosario-central-vs-club-libertad-more-markets-b-polymarket-0x8f0caabcfba56c836d24c6f61ffd6c457d8d410b9575515f4030f5b5e7ca5dd3 |
| O/U 4.5 | 29¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/fc-imabari-vs-kchi-united-sc-more-markets-ou-45-polymarket-0x2274e1938e218342db6bad0b9705832113b19ae38704593b94d6c15ae222b6f2 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-25 | 45 |
| 2026-04-26 | 45 |
| 2026-05-03 | 31 |

_8 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-02 · 17th Place (Relegation Survivor): Newcastle United −17pp 22→5¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-02 · Incheon United FC (-2.5) −17pp 35→18¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Incheon United FC −4pp 32→28¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · CA Rosario Central (-2.5) +4pp 19→23¢ · polymarket

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/newcastle-united-jets-fc-vs-central-coast-mariners-fc
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=newcastle-united-jets-fc-vs-central-coast-mariners-fc

## License

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