# When will Beam Therapeutics Inc. submit a BLA for Ristoglogene autogetemcel (risto-cel) to the FDA

> before April 2027 leads at 65%, runner-up 59% across 6 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 13 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/newdrugappbeam-rist
Updated: 2026-06-25T15:20:51.209Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-04-01

## Headline

- Leader: before April 2027 at 65%
- Runner-up: before 2027 at 59%
- Outcomes: 6 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (6 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (6)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| before April 2027 | 65¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/when-will-beam-therapeutics-inc-submit-a-bla-for-r-kalshi-kxnewdrugappbeam-rist-27apr01 |
| before 2027 | 59¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/when-will-beam-therapeutics-inc-submit-a-bla-for-r-kalshi-kxnewdrugappbeam-rist-27jan01 |
| before December | 53¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/when-will-beam-therapeutics-inc-submit-a-bla-for-r-kalshi-kxnewdrugappbeam-rist-26dec01 |
| before November | 36¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/when-will-beam-therapeutics-inc-submit-a-bla-for-r-kalshi-kxnewdrugappbeam-rist-26nov01 |
| before October | 31¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/when-will-beam-therapeutics-inc-submit-a-bla-for-r-kalshi-kxnewdrugappbeam-rist-26oct01 |
| before September | 20¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/when-will-beam-therapeutics-inc-submit-a-bla-for-r-kalshi-kxnewdrugappbeam-rist-26sep01 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | before April 2027 | before 2027 | before December |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-27 | 73 | 59 | 54 |
| 2026-06-10 | 72 | — | — |
| 2026-06-11 | 66 | — | 54 |
| 2026-06-12 | 65 | — | — |
| 2026-06-17 | — | — | 53 |
| 2026-06-20 | — | — | 53 |

_8 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This 66% probability reflects market expectations that Beam Therapeutics will submit a Biologics License Application (BLA) for risto-cel, a gene-editing therapy for a blood disorder, to the FDA by a specific deadline. The current level balances clinical trial progress and regulatory timelines against typical delays in manufacturing scale-up and FDA interactions for novel therapies. Key drivers include whether ongoing Phase 3 trial data meets efficacy and safety endpoints, manufacturing readiness for commercial production, and any pre-submission meetings with the FDA that signal timeline confidence. The main catalyst will be Beam's next earnings call or investor presentation, where management typically provides updated BLA submission guidance. Contract pricing shows meaningful disagreement about whether submission occurs before December versus earlier, suggesting uncertainty around near-term trial readouts and regulatory feedback.

### Key factors

- Phase 3 clinical trial enrollment status and interim efficacy/safety data—delays in patient recruitment or adverse events would reduce submission probability
- Manufacturing scale-up progress for risto-cel production capacity, as commercial manufacturing readiness is a stated prerequisite for BLA filing
- Pre-BLA meeting outcomes with FDA that clarify regulatory requirements and identify any deficiencies that could delay submission
- Beam's publicly stated BLA submission timeline from most recent earnings guidance and investor communications
- Competitive pressure from COMPASS Pathways' psilocybin program, which shows market interest in novel psychiatric/neurological therapies and may affect Beam's priority

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/newdrugappbeam-rist
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=newdrugappbeam-rist

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