# When will Intellia Therapeutics, Inc. submit a BLA for Lonvoguran Ziclumeran (lonvo-z) to the FDA

> before April 2027 leads at 81%, runner-up 67% across 6 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 19 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/newdrugappntla-lonv
Updated: 2026-08-24T05:20:48.918Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-04-01

## Headline

- Leader: before April 2027 at 81%
- Runner-up: before December at 67%
- Outcomes: 6 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (6 contracts)
- 24h volume: $20

## Bound contracts (6)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| before April 2027 | 81¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/when-will-intellia-therapeutics-inc-submit-a-bla-f-kalshi-kxnewdrugappntla-lonv-27apr01 |
| before December | 67¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/when-will-intellia-therapeutics-inc-submit-a-bla-f-kalshi-kxnewdrugappntla-lonv-26dec01 |
| before 2027 | 65¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/when-will-intellia-therapeutics-inc-submit-a-bla-f-kalshi-kxnewdrugappntla-lonv-27jan01 |
| before November | 57¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/when-will-intellia-therapeutics-inc-submit-a-bla-f-kalshi-kxnewdrugappntla-lonv-26nov01 |
| before October | 39¢ | ±0 | $15 | kalshi | /markets/when-will-intellia-therapeutics-inc-submit-a-bla-f-kalshi-kxnewdrugappntla-lonv-26oct01 |
| before September | 12¢ | +3pp | $4 | kalshi | /markets/when-will-intellia-therapeutics-inc-submit-a-bla-f-kalshi-kxnewdrugappntla-lonv-26sep01 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | before April 2027 | before December | before 2027 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-25 | 75 | 67 | 70 |
| 2026-08-10 | 78 | 67 | 72 |
| 2026-08-17 | — | — | 61 |
| 2026-08-18 | 83 | 69 | 66 |
| 2026-08-23 | — | — | 65 |

_26 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-08-17 · before November −39pp 53→14¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-19 · before November +30pp 12→42¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-19 · before October +23pp 11→34¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-17 · before October −14pp 34→20¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-21 · before November +11pp 45→56¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

The 81% probability reflects market participants' expectation that Intellia Therapeutics will submit a Biologics License Application (BLA) for lonvo-z to the FDA before April 2027. The current price suggests confidence in near-term regulatory progress, likely supported by positive clinical data or statements from the company about submission timelines. This probability would decline if clinical trials face delays, safety concerns emerge, or Intellia revises its regulatory strategy. The main uncertainty centers on whether the company can complete Phase 3 data package preparation and file before the April 2027 deadline. A near-term catalyst would be an earnings call, conference presentation, or clinical trial readout that either confirms or pushes back the expected submission date.

### Key factors

- Recent clinical trial data availability or announced completion status for lonvo-z Phase 3 studies
- Intellia's public guidance on BLA submission timeline given during investor communications
- FDA feedback from pre-submission meetings, which typically clarifies regulatory pathway requirements
- Competitive pressure or market conditions that might accelerate or delay manufacturing and regulatory readiness
- Any safety signals or efficacy findings that could extend development timelines beyond April 2027

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/newdrugappntla-lonv
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=newdrugappntla-lonv

## License

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