# Will Blue Origin's New Glenn rocket launch before Jun 2026

> Before 2027 leads at 20%, runner-up 9% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 54 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/newglenn
Updated: 2026-06-28T21:20:50.143Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-01

## Headline

- Leader: Before 2027 at 20%
- Runner-up: Before December at 9%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $934

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before 2027 | 20¢ | +1pp | $929 | kalshi | /markets/will-blue-origins-new-glenn-rocket-launch-before-j-kalshi-kxnewglenn-272-jan |
| Before December | 9¢ | +1pp | $2 | kalshi | /markets/will-blue-origins-new-glenn-rocket-launch-before-d-kalshi-kxnewglenn-262-dec |
| Before November | 3¢ | ±0 | $3 | kalshi | /markets/will-blue-origins-new-glenn-rocket-launch-before-n-kalshi-kxnewglenn-262-nov |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Before 2027 | Before December | Before November |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-11 | 24 | 10 | 3 |
| 2026-06-13 | 25 | 14 | — |
| 2026-06-14 | 22 | — | 5 |
| 2026-06-21 | 20 | 12 | 4 |
| 2026-06-27 | 19 | 9 | 3 |
| 2026-06-28 | 20 | — | — |

_14 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-23 · Before 2027 −4pp 20→16¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-26 · Before 2027 +3pp 16→19¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-21 · Before November −3pp 7→4¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-26 · Before December −3pp 11→8¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This 19% probability reflects market expectations that Blue Origin's New Glenn heavy-lift rocket will achieve its first orbital launch before January 2027, roughly 7 months from now. The relatively low odds suggest traders view this timeline as challenging but not impossible. New Glenn has faced multiple delays since its original target dates, and development of large orbital rockets typically encounters technical hurdles that compress the available launch window. The primary factors affecting this probability are Blue Origin's stated readiness timeline, completion of launch infrastructure at Cape Canaveral, and any technical issues discovered during final testing phases. The next major catalyst would be an official company announcement confirming a specific launch date or acknowledging further delays. Contract pricing shows markets assign only 7% probability to a November 2026 launch and 14% to December 2026, indicating concentrated skepticism about the nearer-term windows.

### Key factors

- Blue Origin has not yet announced a confirmed orbital launch date for New Glenn as of mid-2026, despite years of development
- The rocket requires completion and certification of launch pad infrastructure at Cape Canaveral before any orbital attempt
- Historical precedent shows heavy-lift rocket programs frequently experience delays during final integration and testing phases
- Market pricing across the three contracts shows declining probabilities for each successive month (7% Nov, 14% Dec, 19% Jan), suggesting uncertainty about exact timing rather than confidence in any single window
- Technical issues discovered in final testing could easily push a launch into 2027 or beyond

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/newglenn
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=newglenn

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.