# Who will the next Pope be

> Pietro Parolin leads at 5%, runner-up 5% across 7 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/newpope
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:38.381Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2070-01-01

## Headline

- Leader: Pietro Parolin at 5%
- Runner-up: Luis Antonio Tagle at 5%
- Outcomes: 7 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (7 contracts)
- 24h volume: $1

## Bound contracts (7)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pietro Parolin | 5¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-the-next-pope-be-pietro-parolin-kalshi-kxnewpope-70-ppar |
| Luis Antonio Tagle | 5¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-the-next-pope-be-luis-antonio-tagle-kalshi-kxnewpope-70-lant |
| Pierbattista Pizzaballa | 4¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-the-next-pope-be-pierbattista-pizzaballa-kalshi-kxnewpope-70-ppiz |
| Matteo Zuppi | 4¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-the-next-pope-be-matteo-zuppi-kalshi-kxnewpope-70-mzup |
| Anders Arborelius | 3¢ | ±0 | $1 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-the-next-pope-be-anders-arborelius-kalshi-kxnewpope-70-aarb |
| Fridolin Ambongo | 3¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-the-next-pope-be-fridolin-ambongo-kalshi-kxnewpope-70-famb |
| Peter Erdo | 3¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-the-next-pope-be-peter-erdo-kalshi-kxnewpope-70-perd |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Pietro Parolin | Luis Antonio Tagle | Pierbattista Pizzaballa |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 6 | — | 5 |
| 2026-04-10 | 6 | 6 | 5 |
| 2026-04-22 | — | 7 | — |
| 2026-04-24 | 7 | — | 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | 7 | — | — |
| 2026-05-06 | 5 | — | — |

_18 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This 5% probability reflects market sentiment on who will become the next Pope, priced from seven different contracts on Kalshi. The current Pope Francis is 88 years old, but papal succession remains inherently unpredictable due to the closed nature of papal conclaves and the long-standing health of the current pontiff. The probability would likely increase if Pope Francis experienced a significant health decline or announced retirement, and would decrease with reports of improved health or longevity. The primary resolution driver is the occurrence of a papal vacancy, which is the only trigger for selecting a new Pope—currently an uncertain timeline that could range from immediately to many years ahead.

### Key factors

- Pope Francis is currently 88 years old; market pricing reflects base rates for succession at advanced age balanced against his demonstrated longevity
- Papal conclaves are closed-door processes with limited predictability; identity of cardinals eligible to vote and their preferences remain largely unknown to external observers
- The 5% price is the highest-priced contract among seven competing candidates, indicating no single outcome dominates market expectations
- Historical papal reigns average 9-10 years; Francis has served since 2013, providing limited historical guidance on timing
- Any public health announcement regarding the current Pope would immediately alter probability across all successor contracts

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/newpope
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=newpope

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.