# Who will be the next CEO of Goldman Sachs

> John Waldron leads at 58%, runner-up 6% across 2 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 10 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/newrolegs
Updated: 2026-07-13T03:20:48.959Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2035-12-31

## Headline

- Leader: John Waldron at 58%
- Runner-up: Marc Nachmann at 6%
- Outcomes: 2 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $18

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Waldron | 58¢ | −1pp | $9 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-be-the-next-ceo-of-goldman-sachs-john-wal-kalshi-kxnewrolegs-35dec-jwa |
| Marc Nachmann | 6¢ | +3pp | $9 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-be-the-next-ceo-of-goldman-sachs-marc-nac-kalshi-kxnewrolegs-35dec-mna |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | John Waldron | Marc Nachmann |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-20 | 59 | — |
| 2026-07-01 | 64 | — |
| 2026-07-07 | — | 3 |
| 2026-07-08 | 57 | — |
| 2026-07-10 | — | 6 |

_9 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-07-10 · Marc Nachmann +3pp 3→6¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

Markets currently assign a 35% probability that John Waldron will be Goldman Sachs's next CEO, based on aggregated trading across prediction contracts. Waldron, the bank's current President and Chief Operating Officer, is positioned as the frontrunner, though significant uncertainty remains about the timing and eventual successor. The leadership transition probability reflects expectations about current CEO David Solomon's tenure and internal succession planning. Factors that would move this probability include announcements from Goldman's board regarding Solomon's future, changes in the bank's strategic direction, or signals about Waldron's health or career trajectory. The single largest catalyst would be an official statement from Goldman Sachs about CEO succession plans or a confirmation of Solomon's departure timeline.

### Key factors

- John Waldron holds the COO position, traditionally a pathway to CEO succession at major financial institutions
- David Solomon's tenure as CEO and any public statements about his planned duration or retirement timeline
- Board composition and publicly reported succession planning discussions at Goldman Sachs
- Relative compensation, promotion visibility, and retention of other internal executive candidates competing for the role
- Market conditions and Goldman's operational performance, which typically influence board decisions about leadership continuity

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/newrolegs
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=newrolegs

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.