# Will the next President confirm 2 Supreme Court justices

> 1 leads at 39%, runner-up 31% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 26 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/newscotusconf
Updated: 2026-06-26T07:20:50.618Z
Category: politics
Status: active
Closes: 2029-01-20

## Headline

- Leader: 1 at 39%
- Runner-up: 2 at 31%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $2

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 39¢ | ±0 | $2 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-next-president-confirm-1-supreme-court-ju-kalshi-kxnewscotusconf-29jan20-1 |
| 2 | 31¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-next-president-confirm-2-supreme-court-ju-kalshi-kxnewscotusconf-29jan20-2 |
| 0 | 24¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-next-president-confirm-0-supreme-court-ju-kalshi-kxnewscotusconf-29jan20-0 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | 1 | 2 | 0 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-27 | 34 | 32 | 23 |
| 2026-06-05 | 42 | 31 | 22 |
| 2026-06-11 | — | — | 20 |
| 2026-06-12 | 43 | — | — |
| 2026-06-19 | 41 | — | — |
| 2026-06-22 | 25 | — | 20 |
| 2026-06-23 | 38 | — | 23 |
| 2026-06-26 | 39 | — | — |

_22 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-22 · 1 −16pp 41→25¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-23 · 1 +13pp 25→38¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-23 · 0 +3pp 20→23¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market indicates a 31% chance that the next U.S. President will appoint two Supreme Court justices during their term. The probability reflects expectations about both the likelihood of specific candidates winning the 2024/2028 election and the number of Court vacancies likely to occur during their presidency. The forecast is influenced by two primary factors: the timeline and age of current justices (determining vacancy likelihood) and uncertainty about which candidate will win the presidency, since different presidents may have different confirmation timelines and political circumstances. The main resolution event will occur once the next presidential term begins and any justice retirements or deaths are announced, making the actual number of vacancies during the administration clear.

### Key factors

- Current ages and tenure lengths of sitting justices determine expected vacancies over the next four-year term
- Market prices for different presidential candidates (Newsom 16¢, Vance 18¢, Rubio 15¢) show no single frontrunner, spreading the probability pool across multiple scenarios
- The 31% level implies roughly 2 in 3 odds against two confirmations, suggesting markets view single or zero confirmations as the base case
- Senate composition following the next election affects confirmation likelihood for any vacancies that arise
- Historical confirmation speeds and partisan dynamics vary significantly by president, impacting how quickly vacancies could be filled during a term

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/newscotusconf
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=newscotusconf

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.