# Next French Presidential Election: Édouard Philippe

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 20% across 1 contract — refreshed 2 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/next-french-presidential-election-douard-philippe
Updated: 2026-05-09T08:50:34.023Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2027-04-30

## Headline

- Probability: 20% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Polymarket (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $11K

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Édouard Philippe | 20¢ | ±0 | $11K | polymarket | /markets/next-french-presidential-election-douard-philippe-polymarket-0x46f2f457e14ee9021ebd0ef4c27eacd98fdceaf7f2938b484e2551e9e3275ae8 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 24 |
| 2026-04-26 | 23 |
| 2026-05-02 | 20 |
| 2026-05-09 | 20 |

_19 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This 22% probability reflects market expectations that Édouard Philippe will win France's next presidential election. Philippe, a former Prime Minister under Emmanuel Macron, remains a centrist figure with significant political experience. The probability would likely increase if he secures major party backing or polling shows him gaining ground against other leading candidates; it would decrease if he loses support or fails to mount an effective campaign. The outcome will primarily be determined by France's next scheduled presidential election, expected in 2027, where voters will choose between Philippe and competing candidates from the left, right, and other political movements. Current market pricing appears to reflect uncertainty about his candidacy status and electoral viability compared to other potential contenders.

### Key factors

- Philippe's current polling position relative to other named candidates in French presidential preference surveys
- Whether Philippe formally declares candidacy and secures backing from a major political party or coalition
- Recent statements or actions by Philippe indicating his electoral intentions for 2027
- Comparative contract prices for other French presidential candidates (Gabriel Attal at 4¢, David Lisnard at 6¢) suggesting market view of relative viability
- Trading volume ($14,237 in 24h volume) indicating market confidence or uncertainty in the 22¢ price discovery

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/next-french-presidential-election-douard-philippe
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=next-french-presidential-election-douard-philippe
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.