# Next James Bond actor

> Closed. Last odds frozen 7 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/next-james-bond-actor
Updated: 2026-06-19T01:20:20.801Z
Category: entertainment
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-06-30

## Headline

- Leader: No Bond chosen at 94%
- Runner-up: Harris Dickinson at 6%
- Outcomes: 11 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (11 contracts)
- 24h volume: $443

## Bound contracts (11)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Bond chosen | 94¢ | +3pp | $443 | polymarket | /markets/next-james-bond-actor-no-bond-chosen-polymarket-0x6a01c1687c781829cc90198cfd3c73f9ce64bca2a8960527868b0ad737e53f89 |
| Harris Dickinson | 6¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/next-james-bond-actor-harris-dickinson-polymarket-0x07dc148f68d0e4adf051bcd4fae2db36018f09ba30847a41cdd047d754f8f7e6 |
| Jack Lowdon | 6¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/next-james-bond-actor-jack-lowdon-polymarket-0x490b4abcc5b23958f5515716fbab843574f9cffef4bc52eac3a3939809757b46 |
| Aaron Taylor-Johnson | 5¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/next-james-bond-actor-aaron-taylor-johnson-polymarket-0x42133d49db1b92415e718af33f00d83fc0812bfad990496ec92ce6b93b259cb6 |
| James Norton | 4¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/next-james-bond-actor-james-norton-polymarket-0x19f5d7740459f84af8156440acabe28bfeb43dc1b2d7c3f5418aa14f64c75a0b |
| Josh O'Connor | 4¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/next-james-bond-actor-josh-oconnor-polymarket-0x7de7918ba7be54764ec10958af792776d0dc2f77bff0d8aaaeac7c6f97015b77 |
| Paul Mescal | 3¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/next-james-bond-actor-paul-mescal-polymarket-0x1d6b738eec27296a3add3fd93de0a59aa61a3cc467b76b912ab1a931b4cd0436 |
| Michael B Jordan | 3¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/next-james-bond-actor-michael-b-jordan-polymarket-0x28cb5e0034ff3c29ff315a95596282c905bc3c963b5f7b3c6ef65ee9f33c4196 |
| Theo James | 3¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/next-james-bond-actor-theo-james-polymarket-0x2d215dfc6dc0e7be3bf0bc077adc3ab5dc562cdfe455bfff02a6723f1c98cf48 |
| Timothee Chalamet | 3¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/next-james-bond-actor-timothee-chalamet-polymarket-0x2f0c81548525ae3879f2855f75c112631a6338fafc7042d27db74723742b0c24 |
| Tom Hardy | 3¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/next-james-bond-actor-tom-hardy-polymarket-0x6522a47a9d908d3f7667044c4de2621d78319bdca65266e6fa933caa2366b64a |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | No Bond chosen | Harris Dickinson | Jack Lowdon |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-27 | 84 | — | — |
| 2026-06-12 | 87 | — | — |
| 2026-06-13 | 88 | 6 | 6 |
| 2026-06-14 | 89 | 7 | 7 |
| 2026-06-15 | 89 | 7 | 7 |
| 2026-06-16 | 90 | 7 | 7 |
| 2026-06-17 | 91 | 7 | 7 |
| 2026-06-18 | 94 | — | — |

_23 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

The 79% probability reflects the market's assessment that no Bond actor will be officially announced in the near term, rather than belief in a specific candidate. This high "no selection" price reflects uncertainty about the timing of the next casting announcement following Daniel Craig's departure. Bond films typically require multi-year development cycles, and MGM/Eon Productions has not publicly committed to a casting timeline. The probability would shift downward if the studio makes an official announcement or if credible reporting suggests an imminent decision. The uncertainty also reflects ongoing speculation among multiple candidates—Callum Turner trades at 54¢ on Kalshi despite only 10¢ on Polymarket, suggesting disagreement about his likelihood. Any formal announcement from producers or leaked details about their selection process would be the primary catalyst to resolve this contract, potentially resolving within 12-36 months based on typical franchise timelines.

### Key factors

- Callum Turner shows divergent pricing between platforms (54¢ Kalshi vs 10¢ Polymarket), indicating material disagreement about his candidacy among traders
- MGM/Eon Productions has made no public casting announcement or timeline commitment as of May 2026
- Substantial 24-hour trading volume on the Callum Turner contract ($4,335) suggests active debate despite low absolute price, indicating genuine uncertainty
- Bond film production cycles typically span 3-5 years, meaning casting may not occur for extended period regardless of behind-the-scenes decisions
- Multiple candidates trading in single digits (Turner 10¢, ATJ 5¢, Elba 3¢) shows market lacks consensus alternative, supporting the high "no selection" price

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/next-james-bond-actor
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=next-james-bond-actor

## License

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