# Who will be the next James Bond?

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 13% across 12 contracts — refreshed 26 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/next-james-bond
Updated: 2026-06-26T07:20:50.204Z
Category: entertainment
Status: active
Closes: 2035-01-01

## Headline

- Probability: 13% (liquidity-weighted across 12 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (12 contracts)
- 24h volume: $5K

## Bound contracts (12)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob Elordi | 17¢ | −1pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-jacob-elordi-be-the-next-james-bond-jacob-elo-kalshi-kxbond-30-jaco |
| Callum Turner | 43¢ | −3pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-callum-turner-be-the-next-james-bond-callum-t-kalshi-kxbond-30-cal |
| Theo James | 3¢ | −2pp | $693 | kalshi | /markets/will-theo-james-be-the-next-james-bond-theo-james-kalshi-kxbond-30-theo |
| Aaron Taylor-Johnson | 8¢ | +1pp | $686 | kalshi | /markets/will-aaron-taylor-johnson-be-the-next-james-bond-a-kalshi-kxbond-30-atj |
| Aaron Pierre | 4¢ | −1pp | $624 | kalshi | /markets/will-aaron-pierre-be-the-next-james-bond-aaron-pie-kalshi-kxbond-30-ap |
| Josh O'Connor | 7¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-josh-oconnor-be-the-next-james-bond-josh-ocon-kalshi-kxbond-30-jos |
| Henry Cavill | 3¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-henry-cavill-be-the-next-james-bond-henry-cav-kalshi-kxbond-30-hc |
| Lorde | 9¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-perform-the-next-james-bond-song-lorde-kalshi-kxperformbondsong-35-lor |
| Ben Whishaw | 27¢ | −4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-ben-whishaw-perform-as-q-in-the-next-james-bo-kalshi-kxperformrole007-q-ben |
| Phoebe Dynevor | 8¢ | −24pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-phoebe-dynevor-perform-as-moneypenny-in-the-n-kalshi-kxperformrole007-moneypenny-pho |
| Anya Taylor-Joy | 12¢ | −4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-anya-taylor-joy-perform-as-a-principal-female-kalshi-kxperformrole007-any |
| Sydney Sweeney | 19¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-sydney-sweeney-perform-as-a-principal-female-kalshi-kxperformrole007-syd |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-27 | 18 |
| 2026-06-12 | 17 |
| 2026-06-19 | 17 |
| 2026-06-26 | 9 |

_31 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-20 · Callum Turner +8pp 40→48¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-23 · Anya Taylor-Joy −8pp 21→13¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-22 · Callum Turner −6pp 49→43¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-22 · Aaron Pierre −5pp 10→5¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-22 · Aaron Taylor-Johnson −4pp 15→11¢ · kalshi

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/next-james-bond
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=next-james-bond

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.