# Next Prime Minister of Sweden

> Magdalena Andersson leads at 65%, runner-up 34% across 2 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 10 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/next-prime-minister-of-sweden
Updated: 2026-05-09T07:20:27.570Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-09-13

## Headline

- Leader: Magdalena Andersson at 65%
- Runner-up: Ulf Kristersson at 34%
- Outcomes: 2 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $260

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Magdalena Andersson | 65¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/next-prime-minister-of-sweden-magdalena-andersson-polymarket-0x58d5cc2bf06a3289b127049239aee051f3b941f219efebbca02d3f50f0eb2a64 |
| Ulf Kristersson | 34¢ | +1pp | $260 | polymarket | /markets/next-prime-minister-of-sweden-ulf-kristersson-polymarket-0x8a42bb4cb9b9f157b539611f6a8c122388f652570cfc3c07d538e7df2bb78894 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Magdalena Andersson | Ulf Kristersson |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | — | 38 |
| 2026-04-11 | 55 | 38 |
| 2026-04-24 | 62 | 34 |
| 2026-04-25 | — | 34 |
| 2026-04-30 | 62 | 36 |
| 2026-05-02 | — | 36 |

_23 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

The market is pricing a 62% probability for a specific outcome regarding Sweden's next Prime Minister, based on aggregated contract pricing across multiple exchanges. This reflects trader expectations about which political figure or party will lead the Swedish government following current political developments. The probability is driven by factors including current coalition dynamics in the Swedish parliament, polling trends for major parties, and statements from political leaders about their intentions to form or continue governments. The most significant catalyst would be any formal announcement of a new government formation, dissolution of parliament triggering new elections, or a major shift in party support as measured by public opinion polls. Key events to monitor include parliamentary votes on government confidence, public opinion surveys, and any official statements from party leadership about coalition negotiations or electoral timing.

### Key factors

- Current composition and stability of Sweden's ruling coalition or government, including which parties hold ministerial positions and their combined parliamentary majority
- Recent polling data showing support levels for major Swedish parties (Moderate Party, Social Democrats, Sweden Democrats, and others) and their relative electoral strength
- Public statements or actions by named political candidates indicating willingness to form a government or lead coalition negotiations
- Timing of the next Swedish general election or any parliamentary procedures that could trigger government formation debates
- Historical precedent for Swedish coalition-building patterns and which parties have demonstrated ability to form stable governing majorities

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/next-prime-minister-of-sweden
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=next-prime-minister-of-sweden

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.