# Next Senate Majority Leader

> Chuck Schumer leads at 25%, runner-up 22% across 11 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 3 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/next-senate-majority-leader
Updated: 2026-05-09T05:05:39.379Z
Category: general · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-03

## Headline

- Leader: Chuck Schumer at 25%
- Runner-up: John Thune at 22%
- Outcomes: 11 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (11 contracts)
- 24h volume: $1K

## Bound contracts (11)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chuck Schumer | 25¢ | +2pp | $355 | polymarket | /markets/next-senate-majority-leader-chuck-schumer-polymarket-0x99dcf0abf02cdbd62e6a17a95c68f7864be5f5779d25d44cf7ea134f5d7979a9 |
| John Thune | 22¢ | −3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/next-senate-majority-leader-john-thune-polymarket-0xe77b34eac7f4da018d919b06f4068cbda9c95247db49dd9d7030721381de74d8 |
| Tom Cotton | 18¢ | −3pp | $245 | polymarket | /markets/next-senate-majority-leader-tom-cotton-polymarket-0x31352af4d7500394fe9e42d889457b455472ee406c6d3dcd0d1e78f656ede65a |
| Brian Schatz | 10¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/next-senate-majority-leader-brian-schatz-polymarket-0xfa1768e810b24af494183e9a5a175fd66f362223fed774a6e498b11494b8a628 |
| Mark Kelly | 7¢ | ±0 | $13 | polymarket | /markets/next-senate-majority-leader-mark-kelly-polymarket-0x08dd73823692954b349d37553101cf749f5f84dc547ee43f51984f811675250c |
| Amy Klobuchar | 7¢ | −4pp | $5 | polymarket | /markets/next-senate-majority-leader-amy-klobuchar-polymarket-0x010f83f40f7937f9aa9f96535b0e5b4da0a0fc72535858974114daa08f109f67 |
| Steve Daines | 5¢ | −5pp | $383 | polymarket | /markets/next-senate-majority-leader-steve-daines-polymarket-0x31d22f7e07d0f4c4b217c3264ade5083fc41650844369508da10b932bb06c333 |
| Cory Booker | 5¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/next-senate-majority-leader-cory-booker-polymarket-0x68bdc81862795e3572a2df9e0ad2e0150c9e2450c3ce78d3534bdcfd7da3ef5b |
| John Barrasso | 3¢ | ±0 | $104 | polymarket | /markets/next-senate-majority-leader-john-barrasso-polymarket-0xdc1ced170c2c3cdca1f825a1da0734965dcf691216f73265188af2c9143087a8 |
| Lindsey Graham | 3¢ | −5pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/next-senate-majority-leader-lindsey-graham-polymarket-0x0f8ba4259a1b9f7fcbed4cc0297ce177f09802e95ba778462582c1e882a4c40b |
| Patty Murray | 3¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/next-senate-majority-leader-patty-murray-polymarket-0x9bb2ff96232df5dc501137ee711e0dfef0056ee1754f8308330d8d4369e59e14 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Chuck Schumer | John Thune | Tom Cotton |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | — | 34 | — |
| 2026-04-10 | 25 | 36 | — |
| 2026-04-20 | 33 | 25 | 3 |
| 2026-04-23 | 38 | 25 | 2 |
| 2026-04-24 | 39 | 27 | — |
| 2026-04-25 | — | 25 | — |
| 2026-04-30 | — | 30 | 1 |
| 2026-05-02 | 37 | 31 | — |
| 2026-05-09 | 25 | 22 | 18 |

_28 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-07 · Tom Cotton +27pp 1→28¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-07 · Chuck Schumer −14pp 37→23¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-07 · Amy Klobuchar +10pp 3→13¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-07 · Lindsey Graham +10pp 1→11¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-07 · Mark Kelly +8pp 1→9¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This represents the market's assessment that Chuck Schumer will be the Senate Majority Leader at some point in the future, currently priced at 36%. The probability reflects expectations about Democratic control of the Senate and Schumer's position within his party. This could rise if Democrats gain Senate seats in upcoming elections or if current leadership dynamics shift; it would decline if Republicans maintain or expand their majority, or if Democrats choose different leadership. The 2026 midterm elections will be the primary catalyst for resolution, as control of the Senate will likely determine which party's leader holds this position.

### Key factors

- Current Senate composition and whether Democrats can gain the three seats needed to reclaim majority control in the 2026 midterms
- Schumer's position and standing within the Democratic caucus, including whether alternative leaders might be chosen if Democrats gain power
- Historical precedent showing that Senate majority leadership typically goes to the most senior member of the majority party unless internal challenges occur
- Timing of potential resolution dependent on 2026 election results and subsequent Senate organization, expected late 2026 or early 2027
- Relative pricing across the multi-outcome contract showing other candidates at significantly lower probabilities, indicating market focus on Schumer as the leading Democratic contender

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/next-senate-majority-leader
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=next-senate-majority-leader
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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