# Next UK Prime Minister in 2026

> Andy Burnham leads at 58%, runner-up 24% across 5 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 19 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/next-uk-prime-minister
Updated: 2026-06-08T01:20:09.759Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-31

## Headline

- Leader: Andy Burnham at 58%
- Runner-up: No Next PM in 2026 at 24%
- Outcomes: 5 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (5 contracts)
- 24h volume: $10K

## Bound contracts (5)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Burnham | 58¢ | +6pp | $3K | polymarket | /markets/next-uk-prime-minister-in-2026-andy-burnham-polymarket-0x763a7f1e440693b54c56da02d338c2092053567dd865174387d06ee5612fdc9e |
| No Next PM in 2026 | 24¢ | +1pp | $1K | polymarket | /markets/next-uk-prime-minister-in-2026-no-next-pm-in-2026-polymarket-0x360229ef7e200995eeedfab6fd63514c8a43fcee803e8ac6dbe17065bd024d60 |
| Angela Rayner | 6¢ | ±0 | $3K | polymarket | /markets/next-uk-prime-minister-in-2026-angela-rayner-polymarket-0xe955eda79ad9ac1e9c055edc23fb5134eb2ace68508645d261c4de8db921f8fa |
| Ed Miliband | 4¢ | +2pp | $1K | polymarket | /markets/next-uk-prime-minister-in-2026-ed-miliband-polymarket-0x9e329c0e729c96b40014938bc0cb63c1637995c571c7ba39bab72028e92525da |
| Wes Streeting | 3¢ | −1pp | $1K | polymarket | /markets/next-uk-prime-minister-in-2026-wes-streeting-polymarket-0x0de4c5e098c5101f7cce39d11dd3294873381b78c2794b6c6aea3142117f03a1 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Andy Burnham | No Next PM in 2026 | Angela Rayner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | 20 | 43 | 11 |
| 2026-05-25 | 45 | — | — |
| 2026-05-26 | 47 | 27 | 9 |
| 2026-06-01 | 61 | 23 | 8 |
| 2026-06-04 | 54 | 24 | 7 |
| 2026-06-05 | 60 | 25 | — |

_28 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-05 · Andy Burnham +6pp 54→60¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-01 · Andy Burnham +5pp 56→61¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-04 · Andy Burnham −4pp 58→54¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-03 · Andy Burnham −3pp 61→58¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This 34% probability reflects market expectations that a specific candidate will become the next UK Prime Minister by the end of 2026. The market is pricing in uncertainty around the timing and outcome of potential leadership changes within the governing party or following an election. Major factors pushing the probability upward would include public polling shifts, party dynamics favoring this candidate, or political instability forcing early succession. Downward pressure would come from rising support for alternative candidates or improved standing of the current Prime Minister. The key resolution point will be the next general election, scheduled for January 2025 or whenever Parliament dissolves, which will determine the governing party and available candidates for the top position. Between now and then, internal party contests, scandals, or performance metrics could significantly alter the trajectory of this outcome.

### Key factors

- Current candidate polling position relative to other potential successors in their party
- Timing of the next general election and whether this candidate's party is projected to govern
- Recent shifts in party membership or grassroots support that might influence leadership selection
- Public approval ratings and polling for this specific candidate versus alternatives
- Historical precedent: how often this candidate has been mentioned in credible media coverage as a potential Prime Minister

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/next-uk-prime-minister
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=next-uk-prime-minister

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.