# Will Marc Sumerlin be the next President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta before Jan 1, 2030

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 20% across 4 contracts — refreshed 13 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nextatlfed
Updated: 2026-08-10T07:20:52.728Z
Category: politics · Topic: fed-rate
Status: active
Closes: 2030-01-08

## Headline

- Probability: 20% (liquidity-weighted across 4 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (4 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (4)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Altig | 19¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-david-altig-be-the-next-president-of-the-fede-kalshi-kxnextatlfed-30jan01-dalt |
| Michael Faulkender | 36¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-michael-faulkender-be-the-next-president-of-t-kalshi-kxnextatlfed-30jan01-mfau |
| Marc Sumerlin | 19¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-marc-sumerlin-be-the-next-president-of-the-fe-kalshi-kxnextatlfed-30jan01-msum |
| Paula Tkac | 7¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-paula-tkac-be-the-next-president-of-the-feder-kalshi-kxnextatlfed-30jan01-ptka |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-07-12 | 20 |

_1 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This probability reflects the estimated likelihood that Marc Sumerlin will become President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta within the next 3.5 years. The current 18% assessment suggests the market views him as a plausible but not leading candidate among several options. The main factors driving this level are Sumerlin's existing position within the Federal Reserve system, his track record, and the timing of when the current Atlanta Fed president's term may conclude or end. Competition from other candidates, particularly Michael Faulkender (trading at 36¢), suggests the market perceives stronger credentials or higher likelihood for other contenders. The resolution will ultimately depend on when a vacancy occurs at the Atlanta Fed and how decision-makers evaluate candidates against the broader pool. Any major policy decisions or statements from the Federal Reserve's leadership selection process would likely shift these probabilities significantly.

### Key factors

- Current Atlanta Fed president's anticipated departure date or end-of-term status
- Sumerlin's prior career trajectory, positions held, and policy track record relative to competing candidates
- Market probability for Faulkender at 36¢ suggests at least one alternative candidate is viewed as substantially more likely
- Distribution across five candidates shows no dominant frontrunner, indicating genuine uncertainty about the succession
- Any public statements or signals from the Federal Reserve Board regarding selection criteria or timeline

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nextatlfed
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=nextatlfed
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/fed-rate

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