# Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 16% across 5 contracts — refreshed 27 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nextchancellor
Updated: 2026-06-25T23:20:50.365Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-08

## Headline

- Probability: 16% (liquidity-weighted across 5 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (5 contracts)
- 24h volume: $3K

## Bound contracts (5)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ed Miliband | 18¢ | +1pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-ed-miliband-be-the-next-chancellor-of-the-exc-kalshi-kxnextchancellor-27-emil |
| Yvette Cooper | 21¢ | +9pp | $396 | kalshi | /markets/will-yvette-cooper-be-the-next-chancellor-of-the-e-kalshi-kxnextchancellor-27-ycoo |
| Shabana Mahmood | 5¢ | −4pp | $303 | kalshi | /markets/will-shabana-mahmood-be-the-next-chancellor-of-the-kalshi-kxnextchancellor-27-smah |
| Wes Streeting | 30¢ | ±0 | $302 | kalshi | /markets/will-wes-streeting-be-the-next-chancellor-of-the-e-kalshi-kxnextchancellor-27-wstr |
| Pat McFadden | 6¢ | −10pp | $131 | kalshi | /markets/will-pat-mcfadden-be-the-next-chancellor-of-the-ex-kalshi-kxnextchancellor-27-pcmf |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-06-22 | 14 |
| 2026-06-23 | 17 |
| 2026-06-24 | 18 |
| 2026-06-25 | 21 |

_4 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-24 · Wes Streeting +15pp 28→43¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-23 · Wes Streeting −14pp 42→28¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-23 · Pat McFadden +14pp 5→19¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-25 · Pat McFadden −10pp 21→11¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-25 · Yvette Cooper +9pp 4→13¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability reflects the market's assessment that Shabana Mahmood has a 16% chance of becoming the next Chancellor of the Exchequer. As Justice Secretary in the current Labour government, she is positioned within the senior cabinet but faces competition from other senior figures for this specific role. The current probability is driven by two main dynamics: first, her distance from the Treasury and finance portfolio compared to other contenders, and second, the relatively low trading volume on her contract ($71 in 24-hour volume) compared to leading candidates like Wes Streeting (50¢, $1,114 volume). Her ascension would primarily depend on either a significant shift in government priorities elevating her profile, or unexpected departures among higher-probability candidates. The resolution of this market is contingent on when a Chancellor vacancy actually occurs and the Prime Minister makes a successor appointment.

### Key factors

- Mahmood's current portfolio is Justice Secretary, not Treasury-aligned; leading candidates like Streeting hold Health and other senior roles
- Wes Streeting is priced at 50¢ while Mahmood is at 5¢, indicating markets view him as substantially more likely
- Mahmood's contract has minimal liquidity ($71 24h volume) versus top candidates with 10-25x higher volume, suggesting lower trader confidence
- Her advancement would require either an unexpected vacancy at Chancellor or a major cabinet reshuffle that elevates her Treasury profile
- No scheduled event or Treasury-related appointment timeline appears imminent that would directly impact her candidacy

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nextchancellor
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=nextchancellor

## License

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