# Who will be Trump's next Secretary of Defense

> No other person leads at 46%, runner-up 11% across 4 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed just now.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nextdef
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:41.362Z
Category: general · Topic: trump
Status: active
Closes: 2029-01-20

## Headline

- Leader: No other person at 46%
- Runner-up: Ron DeSantis at 11%
- Outcomes: 4 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (4 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (4)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No other person | 46¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-be-trumps-next-secretary-of-defense-no-ot-kalshi-kxnextdef-29-none |
| Ron DeSantis | 11¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-be-trumps-next-secretary-of-defense-ron-d-kalshi-kxnextdef-29-rdes |
| Dan Driscoll | 6¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-be-trumps-next-secretary-of-defense-dan-d-kalshi-kxnextdef-29-ddri |
| Joni Ernst | 4¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-be-trumps-next-secretary-of-defense-joni-kalshi-kxnextdef-29-jern |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | No other person | Ron DeSantis | Dan Driscoll |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 48 | 11 | — |
| 2026-04-25 | 45 | 12 | — |
| 2026-04-28 | 45 | 11 | 7 |
| 2026-05-01 | 47 | — | — |
| 2026-05-08 | 46 | — | — |

_21 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This contract reflects a 47% probability that a specific unnamed candidate will become Trump's next Secretary of Defense, based on current market pricing. The relatively low market volume ($21,000 across three contracts) and fragmented odds suggest significant uncertainty about the eventual nominee. Key drivers of this probability include Trump's stated preference for military-focused leadership, the pool of available candidates with relevant backgrounds, and potential political constraints from Senate confirmation dynamics. The primary resolution catalyst will be Trump's formal announcement of his defense secretary nomination, which typically occurs during the presidential transition period but timing remains uncertain. Until that announcement, market prices will likely fluctuate based on political reporting, candidate positioning, and any public statements from Trump regarding defense priorities.

### Key factors

- Market volume is relatively low at $21k aggregate over 24 hours, indicating thin liquidity and potentially wide bid-ask spreads
- The leader's 47% price reflects single-outcome winner-take-all odds, not a tie scenario—other candidates collectively price near 53%
- No single alternative candidate exceeds 11%, suggesting the market perceives a dispersed field without obvious frontrunners
- Confirmation risk exists since Senate approval is required, which could affect odds if specific nominees face political obstacles
- The outcome depends entirely on Trump's discretionary selection decision, with no intermediate data points to calibrate expectations before announcement

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nextdef
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=nextdef
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/trump

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.