# Will David Hogg be the next Chair of the Democratic National Committee

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 6% across 16 contracts — refreshed 51 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nextdncchair
Updated: 2026-06-08T05:20:08.809Z
Category: general · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2045-01-08

## Headline

- Probability: 6% (liquidity-weighted across 16 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (16 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (16)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Wikler | 5¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-ben-wikler-be-the-next-chair-of-the-democrati-kalshi-kxnextdncchair-45-bwik |
| Jane Kleeb | 5¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-jane-kleeb-be-the-next-chair-of-the-democrati-kalshi-kxnextdncchair-45-jkle |
| Malcolm Kenyatta | 5¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-malcolm-kenyatta-be-the-next-chair-of-the-dem-kalshi-kxnextdncchair-45-mken |
| Artie Blanco | 5¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-artie-blanco-be-the-next-chair-of-the-democra-kalshi-kxnextdncchair-45-abla |
| Martin O’Malley | 16¢ | −7pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-martin-omalley-be-the-next-chair-of-the-democ-kalshi-kxnextdncchair-45-moma |
| Amanda Litman | 5¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-amanda-litman-be-the-next-chair-of-the-democr-kalshi-kxnextdncchair-45-alit |
| Faiz Shakir | 16¢ | −4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-faiz-shakir-be-the-next-chair-of-the-democrat-kalshi-kxnextdncchair-45-fsha |
| Jon Tester | 5¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-jon-tester-be-the-next-chair-of-the-democrati-kalshi-kxnextdncchair-45-jtes |
| Howard Dean | 5¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-howard-dean-be-the-next-chair-of-the-democrat-kalshi-kxnextdncchair-45-hdea |
| Jaime Harrison | 5¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-jaime-harrison-be-the-next-chair-of-the-democ-kalshi-kxnextdncchair-45-jhar |
| Pete Buttigieg | 5¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-pete-buttigieg-be-the-next-chair-of-the-democ-kalshi-kxnextdncchair-45-pbut |
| Laphonza Butler | 5¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-laphonza-butler-be-the-next-chair-of-the-demo-kalshi-kxnextdncchair-45-lbut |
| Michael Blake | 5¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-michael-blake-be-the-next-chair-of-the-democr-kalshi-kxnextdncchair-45-mbla |
| Jason Rae | 5¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-jason-rae-be-the-next-chair-of-the-democratic-kalshi-kxnextdncchair-45-jrae |
| Chris Korge | 5¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-chris-korge-be-the-next-chair-of-the-democrat-kalshi-kxnextdncchair-45-ckor |
| James Skoufis | 5¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-james-skoufis-be-the-next-chair-of-the-democr-kalshi-kxnextdncchair-45-jsko |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-06-05 | 22 |
| 2026-06-06 | 16 |

_2 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-06 · Martin O’Malley −7pp 23→16¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-06 · Faiz Shakir −4pp 20→16¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market estimates a 5% probability that David Hogg, the gun-control activist, will become the next Democratic National Committee Chair. The current low probability reflects that Hogg lacks traditional party infrastructure credentials and elected office experience typically required for the role, while other candidates like Amanda Litman and Jason Paul command similar odds. The probability could shift upward if Hogg pursues elected office or gains a formal DNC leadership position beforehand, or downward if the party prioritizes candidates with extensive political experience. The position becomes vacant when the current chair departs or when the DNC holds a leadership election, typically following major electoral cycles. Contract pricing suggests substantial uncertainty, with no single candidate commanding dominant odds.

### Key factors

- Hogg has no elected political office or previous DNC leadership experience as of June 2026
- Competing candidates like Litman and Jason Paul hold similar 5% probabilities, indicating market sees no clear frontrunner
- DNC Chair selection typically requires party voting structures or election mechanics not yet officially scheduled
- Hogg's public profile is primarily tied to advocacy and media appearances rather than party-building or fundraising roles
- At least five distinct candidates with measurable contract odds suggests fragmentation rather than consensus around any particular successor

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nextdncchair
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=nextdncchair
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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